Pattern Marvelous March

[KyloG]

Navgem is a late bloomer for coastal.

 

[DixieBlizzard]

Navgem is a late bloomer for coastal.
View attachment 16860

Too bad you can't see the classified version!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

stronger PV lobe this run

 

[Snowflowxxl]

GFS give ATL some very light snow this run

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So happy this is not a apps runner this run

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Yep I still like that look better than it showing us all getting a ton of snow right now.

 

[KyloG]

When you just look at the trends of then 0z/12z runs

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s a pretty significant change at that range (H5), big lobe/ULL in Canada stronger/south this run and still a positively tilted trof, I’d take that at this range

 

[Storm5]

When you just look at the trends of then 0z/12z runs

View attachment 16868

By 12z tomorrow it will be a mid Atlantic jackpot


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[KyloG]

One more

 

[hikingtheappalachians]

Here's the CMC

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Fv3 is similar to the GFS

 

[ATLwxfan]

GFS give ATL some very light snow this run

I got that 2014 feeling.


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[NickyBGuarantee]

Looks like more bang for our buck on the GEFS tonight .. at least a good run for North Carolina it looks like but I don’t know about others

 

[Weatherlover92]

#WINNING lmao

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Please get ensemble 11, 13, 17 outa here

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Looks like more bang for our buck on the GEFS tonight .. at least a good run for North Carolina it looks like but I don’t know about others

Looks worse than 18z

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Yes just to clarify for everyone 00z GEFS snow mean took a step back. Although I really don’t give much credence to ensemble snow means bc I think they’re extremely misleading in both directions

 

[hikingtheappalachians]

Based on the individual maps, I think the snow mean took a step back because there are actually more amped up members. Surprised that it's lower than 18z though!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Trof axis moved west, Again, altho it’s stronger this run but it need to stop or the MA will win slightly more suppressed here, probably due to more influence from that bombing low around Newfoundland but high pressure is weaker

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Idk I saw a lot of fish snow on the individual maps. That tells me the coastal idea is alive and well

 

[hikingtheappalachians]

0z Euro precip field is a smidge north

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Something interesting has caught my eye on the 00z euro ... tell me if u see the difference

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Something interesting has caught my eye on the 00z euro ... tell me if u see the difference

Poor mans block/ridging over Greenland

 

[hikingtheappalachians]

Yeah, I was about to say, stronger heights over Greenland, perhaps as a result of a sharper defined trough over the North Atlantic?

 

[hikingtheappalachians]

Ultimately, the euro is about as suppressed as it was at 12z... certainly no complaints from me at this stage.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah, I was about to say, stronger heights over Greenland, perhaps as a result of a sharper defined trough over the North Atlantic?

I guess that sharp trough/Lobe is acting in some way to shorten the wavelength with northern stream/PJ allowing some ridging over Greenland, like how a 50/50 low would basically do? Ridging over Greenland typically means your gonna get a amped or stronger storm to develop as it slows the northern stream but can also slow the southern stream which argues amplification

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

... Uhhh Euro is reloading the pattern ...

 

[hikingtheappalachians]

I guess that sharp trough/Lobe is acting in some way to shorten the wavelength with northern stream/PJ allowing some ridging over Greenland, like how a 50/50 low would basically do? Ridging over Greenland typically means your gonna get a amped or stronger storm to develop as it slows the northern stream but can also slow the southern stream which argues amplification

With that development, I might be a bit surprised it's still just as suppressed on the OP, but I think the stronger PV cancelled out the rising heights over Greenland. Will be interesting to see if there's more amped up solutions on the EPS (it seemed to me like the GEFS was kindof hinting at this a bit).

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

And it’s that extra blocking over Greenland that helps push another lobe of cold down giving us maybe another shot?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

And it’s that extra blocking over Greenland that helps push another lobe of cold down giving us maybe another shot?

I got TT maps lol but it appears there a system in Texas with a high** squishing it atm

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Also some of that ridging on Greenland appears to be coming from the WAR

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol spellcheck really changed high to hug

 

[hikingtheappalachians]

FYI this is the storm at the end of the Euro run

 

[hikingtheappalachians]

The EPS "mean" is actually southeast of 12z lol. Don't think you can call a dusting much of a mean, but that dusting strip shifted southeast quite a bit on the 0z EPS.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS is more suppressed, GEFS vs EPS, something in between seems reasonable atm.... that bombing low near Newfoundland is definitely affecting this storm

 

[accu35]

Most members on 6z has moisture further north, even tho the OP looked horrible. 12z will give us a new look.

 

[accu35]

Here's another frame. I'm still watching for this one

 

[Stormdoc]

I do believe the folks yesterday worried this would trend too far NW better start pulling in the other direction...

 

[jackendrickwx]

I do believe the folks yesterday worried this would trend too far NW better start pulling in the other direction...

I think we've got time. If the trend starts today I'd be worried its early, I'd rather it start at 12z tomorrow or 0z Saturday. Plus, we've seen how much it can change in one run