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Pattern Marvelous March

These probably been posted but it's been a long day and I'm too tired to scroll back through and see, anyway thing 1 and thing 2 (18 GEFS)... I too like to see suppression again at this lead time, unfortunately I think the Euro is firing warning shots right and left but we shall see

gefs_ptype_ens_nc_24.png

gefs_ptype_ens_nc_31.png
 
GFS is slowly losing that finger of ridging up through eastern Canada. That seems to be causing out PV to come in weaker and weaker. Probably both symptoms of a bigger underlying issue but I’m an amateur and I’m trying my best..
 
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Just a random thought but one thing I've noticed is how much the timing constantly changes between these two systems on the different runs of Euro and especially GFS. For example, hour 138 of 18z GFS had a suppressed southern wave with light snow in NGA. There's essentially nothing on the corresponding hour 132 of the 0z GFS, as the "bulk" of the system seems to have already passed by 18 to 24 hours earlier with a much warmer rain. And there were some runs where the energy from the first wave and second wave seemed to be merged into one system, although that doesn't seem to be the case anymore (the 0z GFS second wave energy seems to just pass way to the south??). So until this gets resolved I would continue to expect potentially significant shifts.
 
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