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March 24th Severe weather threat

Myfrotho704_

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Soundings today look supportive of large/damaging hail with solid CAPE with low freezing levels/cold 500mb temps, strong mid level flow, and isolated tornadoes today seem possible given the low level hodograph curvature, it’s also a good day if your chasing for structure given the bit of LFC/LCL seperation (CIN) and llvl hodo curvature (stacked/laminar/striated structures)
Forecast Soundings before storms fire E1319857-3A38-4D59-9EFC-99F7046C31FA.png 8CF228EC-50E4-4675-A62F-B2E212D2921E.png
 

Myfrotho704_

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looks like we’re gonna luck out in NC with elevated thunderstorms from MUCAPE, altho some storms could have small hail, hopefully the CAD doesn’t erode further north because wind profiles are quite impressive, may see a 1-2 elevated supercells closer to the CAD boundary like the HRRR/NAM show DCC73CC5-1CF1-4DC4-98F6-46E5ACF83929.png
 

Webberweather53

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Yeah have to figure the HRRR is probably over mixing and eroding the CAD a bit too quickly, the tor threat here will be limited by the slow deep layer flow, lack of low-level instability due to preceding convection and stratiform precip (which usually over performs) and poor low-level lapse rates underneath the dome. Localized flash flooding and hail are the main threats in NC today imo
 

Myfrotho704_

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Yeah have to figure the HRRR is probably over mixing and eroding the CAD a bit too quickly, the tor threat here will be limited by the slow deep layer flow, lack of low-level instability due to preceding convection and stratiform precip (which usually over performs) and poor low-level lapse rates underneath the dome. Localized flash flooding and hail are the main threats in NC today imo
At this point a something as simple as a thunderstorm passing over would relieve stress from COVID-19, lol
 

ryan1234

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Noticing some breaks in the clouds across the Southern Piedmont. Pretty sure that was not in the forecast. It'll be interesting to see how that affects our weather later on.
 

Myfrotho704_

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Noticing some breaks in the clouds across the Southern Piedmont. Pretty sure that was not in the forecast. It'll be interesting to see how that affects our weather later on.
Increases the hail threat for later, already more MUCAPE advection than what the hrrr shows
 
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