• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

Webberweather53 said:
Yep lol exactly what I talked about yesterday wrt interpreting UH tracks & sim reflectivity from the CAMs. These fields on the models w/ 3km resolution are just easily influenced by storm size as they are the actual conditions and the lack of them on a model doesn't necessarily equate to a bust or crappy environment. You can just have a ton of smaller supercells that are harder for the models to resolve and as these cells grow upscale, the model errors may become exceptionally large.
Click to expand...
I just saw this tweet last week that provided a useful visualization on this topic. Hope this isn't what was discussed yesterday.

 
Fishel talking about the mesolow.

MESOLOW COULD THROW A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THINGS BY ENHANCING THE SEVERE THREAT

In meteorology we deal with many scales of systems. The systems you see on the traditional weather map operate on what we call the synoptic scale. These are weather systems that affect multiple states at a given time. Mesoscale systems may only affect several counties at a given time. Well there is boundary between cool, damp air over the Piedmont of North Carolina, and warm, moist air over much of South Carolina and the coastal plain of North Carolina. A mesolow appears to have formed in extreme northeast Georgia or extreme western South Carolina. Pressures are beginning to fall ahead of that low along the boundary mentioned earlier. This mesolow could well act as a focusing mechanism for severe thunderstorm development, as well as a few tornadoes. It’s these small scale features, which are difficult to predict more than a few hours in advance, that can make the difference between a run of the mill severe weather event, and one that has a bit more punch to it. In March of 1984, it was a mesolow that formed in Georgia and tracked across South Carolina and southern North Carolina, that produced the worst tornado outbreak in 100 years in the Carolinas. I’m certainly not predicting a repeat of that, but I am a little concerned about the evolution of this feature over the next 4-6 hours. Still think 4-7pm is prime time. It’s still wait and see time, but we’re not far away from the main event, which hopefully will be more bark than bite!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top