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Severe March 14-17 Severe
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
SWVAwxfan
Member
Reports that a trailer park was completely destroyed with multiple fatalities in Poplar Bluff MO.
SWVAwxfan
Member
Nightmare fuel right there. 93 octane.
I’d stay up all night if I could but I physically can’t. Yall be safe
TDS crossing I-55. This is going to clip NW Montgomery County and move into Grenada Co near Elliott
We're going to go considerable on that warning. Rotational velocity is quite strong.
TDS also appears to extend to at least 10,000 ft
THIS IS IN MS.
We're going to go considerable on that warning. Rotational velocity is quite strong.
TDS also appears to extend to at least 10,000 ft
THIS IS IN MS.
BufordWX
Member
Mississippi storm intensifying.
Cell interactions should put a damper on Darth Vader in MS.
Packsox03
Member
In the south, a lot of people live in mobile homes. I’m really worried about that aspect because by the time the warning is issued, it’s too late. This is an example of how they are a death trap.
NEW DAY 1
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR
FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States
and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant
tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially
violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous
tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi
during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day
into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle
and Georgia Saturday night.
...Central Gulf States/Tennessee Valley Region...
Strong cyclone that is lifting northeast across the upper MS Valley
will eject into northwest Ontario later today as a very strong
mid-level speed max digs southeast across northern Mexico into
south-central TX. Later tonight, this jet will translate into the
central Gulf States with winds in excess of 110kt. In response to
this feature, a surface low should evolve along the trailing
boundary along the TX/LA border early in the period, then track
northeast into western KY by 16/00z. Additionally, an intense LLJ
will evolve by mid day across northern MS and strengthen during the
afternoon as it gradually shifts downstream into AL/middle TN/KY by
early evening. Net result should be for a bit higher moisture
content to advance farther north than previous thought.
Early this morning, an arcing band of scattered supercells extended
across southern IL into eastern AR. More isolated activity has
persisted much of the late evening across portions of MS. Latest
thinking is convective overturning should remain minimal across the
lower MS Valley and this will allow significant destabilization to
materialize ahead of the surface low early in the period. Latest
surface data depicts lower 70s dew points across southern
LA/southwest MS, with mid 60s approaching the south side of the
Memphis metro. Confidence is increasing that a corridor of strong
buoyancy and intense shear will be in place prior to the
aforementioned speed max/short-wave trough. Forecast soundings
exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates with ESRH in excess of 500 m2/s2
across a broad swath of the central Gulf States, especially the
categorical High Risk delineation.
While scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
at the start of the period across the western TN Valley, convection
should increase in intensity by late morning across LA as the
leading edge of the approaching short wave begins to influence this
region. Continued boundary-layer heating will lead to subsequent
development and supercells should mature and race northeast as the
flow strengthens. This flow regime favors long-lived tornadoes, and
the parameter space suggests potentially violent, long-track
tornadoes. This activity will grow upscale in both coverage and
intensity through late afternoon as the overall severe complex
shifts downstream. Large hail and damaging winds may also accompany
these storms, but the primary concern today will be the likelihood
for a tornado outbreak, especially across Mississippi into Alabama.
..Darrow/Moore.. 03/15/2025
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR
FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States
and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant
tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially
violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous
tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi
during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day
into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle
and Georgia Saturday night.
...Central Gulf States/Tennessee Valley Region...
Strong cyclone that is lifting northeast across the upper MS Valley
will eject into northwest Ontario later today as a very strong
mid-level speed max digs southeast across northern Mexico into
south-central TX. Later tonight, this jet will translate into the
central Gulf States with winds in excess of 110kt. In response to
this feature, a surface low should evolve along the trailing
boundary along the TX/LA border early in the period, then track
northeast into western KY by 16/00z. Additionally, an intense LLJ
will evolve by mid day across northern MS and strengthen during the
afternoon as it gradually shifts downstream into AL/middle TN/KY by
early evening. Net result should be for a bit higher moisture
content to advance farther north than previous thought.
Early this morning, an arcing band of scattered supercells extended
across southern IL into eastern AR. More isolated activity has
persisted much of the late evening across portions of MS. Latest
thinking is convective overturning should remain minimal across the
lower MS Valley and this will allow significant destabilization to
materialize ahead of the surface low early in the period. Latest
surface data depicts lower 70s dew points across southern
LA/southwest MS, with mid 60s approaching the south side of the
Memphis metro. Confidence is increasing that a corridor of strong
buoyancy and intense shear will be in place prior to the
aforementioned speed max/short-wave trough. Forecast soundings
exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates with ESRH in excess of 500 m2/s2
across a broad swath of the central Gulf States, especially the
categorical High Risk delineation.
While scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
at the start of the period across the western TN Valley, convection
should increase in intensity by late morning across LA as the
leading edge of the approaching short wave begins to influence this
region. Continued boundary-layer heating will lead to subsequent
development and supercells should mature and race northeast as the
flow strengthens. This flow regime favors long-lived tornadoes, and
the parameter space suggests potentially violent, long-track
tornadoes. This activity will grow upscale in both coverage and
intensity through late afternoon as the overall severe complex
shifts downstream. Large hail and damaging winds may also accompany
these storms, but the primary concern today will be the likelihood
for a tornado outbreak, especially across Mississippi into Alabama.
..Darrow/Moore.. 03/15/2025
High risk rugged north a bit
THIS IS IN MS.
Nadocast resurrected
BufordWX
Member
AS YOU CAN SEE NOTHING HAPPENING IN CENTRAL BAMA OR ANYWHERE FOR THAT MATTER. I HAVE A SUSPICION THAT THINGS ARE GOING TO GET VERY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
VegasEagle
Member
Shinrin
Member
Yikes, saw the new outlook for this afternoon.. that high risk zone is like half a mile south of me.. since i'm that close to it, i consider us being in it. Man this is getting scary, Hope everyone will be safe later today.
BufordWX
Member
Impressive storm in Southern Illinois, especially for this hour.
ITS NOW CONSIDERABLE PER THE PADUCHA CHATROOM
Got reports of damage at nursing home in sikeston near George E Day parkway area in MO.
FROM WHAT I CAN SEE ITS DELTA SOUTH NURSING HOME & REHAB
FROM WHAT I CAN SEE ITS DELTA SOUTH NURSING HOME & REHAB
VegasEagle
Member
Downeastnc
Member
Starting to get that look again as it moved east and clears from those mergers
Downeastnc
Member
6z HRRR is not fun
FROM BIRMINGHAM NWS CONCERNING TODAY FOR THE "MAIN EVENT"
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
238 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
BLUF: A prolific severe weather event is expected today, with
multiple rounds of supercells likely through the afternoon hours.
Given the parameter space, tornadoes associated with these
supercells will have the capacity to be violent and long-lived.
Tornado watches and warnings are ongoing to our west, with new
convection already building in WFO Jackson`s southern tier of
counties. These storm will continue to build north, eventually
translating into our first round of severe weather for the day.
However, some of these early storms may end up being suppressed, as
a special 05z balloon from BMX shows a rather stout warm nose
between 850 and 700mb. Even with the suppression, the early
convection will still be capable of producing all modes of severe
weather.
The significant tornado threat will really begin to ramp up around
noon, when the second surface low begins to develop near the
ArkLaTex region, ejecting into the lower Midwest. High-res guidance
continues to indicate rapid destabilization across the warm sector,
with a large portion of our region remaining relatively unphased by
the early convection. In fact, this morning convection could even
aid these afternoon supercells by planting residual boundaries for
them to latch onto. Once the warm nose overhead erodes, and storms
are able to tap into the full environment overhead, any storm that
starts to spin will be capable of producing a tornado. Any one of
these tornadoes will also have the capacity of become strong,
violent, and long-lived.
These supercells will continue to trek east into the evening hours,
remaining somewhat isolated from each other for the majority of the
event. However, things will begin to become more congested as these
storm push past I-65, eventually becoming more linear in shape. Even
with that scenario, storms along the line could retain their
supercell characteristics, keeping the strong tornado threat
lingering through the entirety of our CWA.
Even with storms expected to be ongoing as the sun comes up, there
is still time to prepare for what appears to be a prolific tornado
event across the region. Gather important documents, charge your
devices, and do not hesitate to act when prompted. These storms
could be moving 50+ MPH when a warning is issued, and time will be
of the essence. On a high-end day like today, take every precaution
necessary to protect yourself, and your loved ones.
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
238 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
BLUF: A prolific severe weather event is expected today, with
multiple rounds of supercells likely through the afternoon hours.
Given the parameter space, tornadoes associated with these
supercells will have the capacity to be violent and long-lived.
Tornado watches and warnings are ongoing to our west, with new
convection already building in WFO Jackson`s southern tier of
counties. These storm will continue to build north, eventually
translating into our first round of severe weather for the day.
However, some of these early storms may end up being suppressed, as
a special 05z balloon from BMX shows a rather stout warm nose
between 850 and 700mb. Even with the suppression, the early
convection will still be capable of producing all modes of severe
weather.
The significant tornado threat will really begin to ramp up around
noon, when the second surface low begins to develop near the
ArkLaTex region, ejecting into the lower Midwest. High-res guidance
continues to indicate rapid destabilization across the warm sector,
with a large portion of our region remaining relatively unphased by
the early convection. In fact, this morning convection could even
aid these afternoon supercells by planting residual boundaries for
them to latch onto. Once the warm nose overhead erodes, and storms
are able to tap into the full environment overhead, any storm that
starts to spin will be capable of producing a tornado. Any one of
these tornadoes will also have the capacity of become strong,
violent, and long-lived.
These supercells will continue to trek east into the evening hours,
remaining somewhat isolated from each other for the majority of the
event. However, things will begin to become more congested as these
storm push past I-65, eventually becoming more linear in shape. Even
with that scenario, storms along the line could retain their
supercell characteristics, keeping the strong tornado threat
lingering through the entirety of our CWA.
Even with storms expected to be ongoing as the sun comes up, there
is still time to prepare for what appears to be a prolific tornado
event across the region. Gather important documents, charge your
devices, and do not hesitate to act when prompted. These storms
could be moving 50+ MPH when a warning is issued, and time will be
of the essence. On a high-end day like today, take every precaution
necessary to protect yourself, and your loved ones.
BIRMINGHAM NWS IS STATING THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RADAR CLEARING UP A LOT QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.
shortstopsergio
Member
Bro try lower case
IM AT WORK AND IN OUR CAD WE HAVE TO USE ALL CAPS. THEY HAVE SOME CODE IN HERE WHERE IF I EVEN TURN THE CAPS LOCK OFF IT STILL DOESNT WORK.
LickWx
Member
Thats funny, you use the CAD to post here lol
Brent
Member
NWMSGuy
Member
New Tornado Watch until 1PM.
NWMSGuy
Member
Hate to see that one long track Tornado in Greenwood MS last night but thankful most of the rest of North MS dodged a bullet last night.
NEGaweather
Member
Thunderstorms firing this morning in NEAla and NWGa. Hopefully will stabilize the apostrophe some before this afternoon.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Gotta say that I sure did expect a lot larger coverage of rain/storms this morning. Concerns me big time for later.
Interesting
Belle Lechat
Member
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2021
- Messages
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633 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
COLUMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN CLAIBORNE PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
* UNTIL 715 AM CDT.
* AT 633 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SAREPTA, OR
7 MILES SOUTH OF SPRINGHILL, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
COLUMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN CLAIBORNE PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
* UNTIL 715 AM CDT.
* AT 633 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SAREPTA, OR
7 MILES SOUTH OF SPRINGHILL, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.