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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

50/80

1. Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is broad and
ill defined, but it is producing winds just below gale force.
Development of this system is expected, and a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend or
early next week while moving eastward or northeastward across the
Gulf of Mexico. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical
or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over
portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of
Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
 
00z and 06z are very similar.....🙄
Even lower pressure to 949.
Hurricane on Monday morning.
Looks like about half the ensemble agrees with operational.

gfs_mslp_wind_seus_19.png

92L_gefs_latest (1).png
 
Last edited:
Henry2326 said:
00z and 06z are very similar.....🙄
Even lower pressure to 949.
Hurricane on Monday morning.
Looks like about half the ensemble agrees with operational.

View attachment 152581

View attachment 152582
Click to expand...
I don't like those northern members at all. Note that all of them are intense hurricanes, and the way models are stepping up the forecast intensity of this system is concerning.
 
70/90
Apparently they see what we are seeing.
Possible hurricane tomorrow.

1. Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually
becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or
on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move
faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf
of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida
Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could
occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over
much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
 
HAFS-A.....Wednesday morning it's 926, but by Wednesday afternoon at landfall it's 957.....I'm assuming shear.....


hafsa_ref_92L_35.png
 
Henry2326 said:
925....HMON 936 at same point.....We saw this same thing with the first run of hurricane models for Helene. And so much agreement with GFS.....good gr
Henry2326 said:
925....HMON 936 at same point.....We saw this same thing with the first run of hurricane models for Helene. And so much agreement with GFS.....good grief
Click to expand...
After Florida is it coming back inland or ots
Click to expand...
 
The short term Hurricane models don't go out that far. But GFS says ots. We should have a high over the southeastern that blocks it. But we are 5 days out so have to continue to watch.
 
Henry2326 said:
My opinion......Hwrf and Hmon were fantastic. The Hafs not so much.
Click to expand...

Looks like they are all showing dry air getting into the core just before landfall. Even a weak storm into Tampa Bay would be bad though.


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Hwfr......In lock step with HMON. 941 on approach, same spot, but a bit lower.
It goes from 922 on Wendesday morning to 941 at landfall.

hwrf_ref_92L_40.png
 
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