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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

I'd give Milton another 6 to 9 hours before we see another ERC occur given the pressure changes, eye down to 9 miles again, and microwave imagery building up again outside the eyewall. Whether this will shred the storm or give it enough time afterwards has yet to be seen but I'd be concerned if the dry air can't get deep into the storm by landfall.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'd give Milton another 6 to 9 hours before we see another ERC occur given the pressure changes, eye down to 9 miles again, and microwave imagery building up again outside the eyewall. Whether this will shred the storm or give it enough time afterwards has yet to be seen but I'd be concerned if the dry air can't get deep into the storm by landfall.
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Wasn't there one storm that completely walled off the Dry air upon landfall and barely weakened? I think there was one, but can't remember the name of it.
 
severestorm said:
Wasn't there one storm that completely walled off the Dry air upon landfall and barely weakened? I think there was one, but can't remember the name of it.
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It's that blob to the NE of the storm I'm more worried about continuing to reinforce what is lost on the W side as it pulls north. A lot of that may fade but it still has a good moisture feed, which is likely what made it blow back up after almost losing its eyewall earlier on satellite. The ERC speed seems fast with this storm too.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'd give Milton another 6 to 9 hours before we see another ERC occur given the pressure changes, eye down to 9 miles again, and microwave imagery building up again outside the eyewall. Whether this will shred the storm or give it enough time afterwards has yet to be seen but I'd be concerned if the dry air can't get deep into the storm by landfall.
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I’ve tracking the water vapor images for the last few hours and despite all the dry air to the north and west of the storm it’s just showing no signs of effecting any time soon. The outflow is still about perfect to the north and west.
 
iGRXY said:
this is just my personal opinion but none of these models have done a good job as far as strength goes. This thing has really blown most out of them out of the water and has been stronger than even the lowest hurricane models. There will be weakening on approach but I think we are really underestimating just how strong and resilient this thing is going to be to dry air and shear.
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It typically seems strength forecasting for hurricanes is one of the things NWP struggles the most with.
 
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