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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Tarheel1 said:
So what’s driving the N movement after landfall? The front coming down? If it’s slower, it goes more N, before being shunted East!
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It's basically being funneled North between the Atlantic Ridge and that approaching digging trough, the slower it is initially the more time it allows the trough to push in and the more Eastern track, faster and stronger Ridge the more Western track.

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Imagine the GFS might a little to west and UK a little to east. Timing differences starting to narrow some too.

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metwannabe said:
It's basically being funneled North between the Atlantic Ridge and that approaching digging trough, the slower it is initially the more time it allows the trough to push in and the more Eastern track, faster and stronger Ridge the more Western track.

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I really shouldn't use speak text it does not understand my Southern accent. Sorry back on topic now

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The 12Z FV3 is only a hair east of its prior run with a western Panhandle hit, which is still west of the reliable consensus. It continues to hit slightly later than its earlier runs, which continues its recent trend of landfalling later. Still, as mentioned by others above, it landfalls significantly earlier than most other models, which is probably why it is so much further west. The contrast between it and the 12Z UMKET, which landfalls some 24 hours later and is nearly 200 miles to the east, is mind boggling.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z FV3 is only a hair east of its prior run with a western Panhandle hit, which is still west of the reliable consensus. It continues to hit slightly later than its earlier runs, which continues its recent trend of landfalling later. Still, as mentioned by others above, it landfalls significantly earlier than most other models, which is probably why it is so much further west. The contrast between it and the 12Z UMKET, which landfalls some 24 hours later and is nearly 200 miles to the east, is mind boggling.
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For now, I would discount that ukie
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z FV3 is only a hair east of its prior run with a western Panhandle hit, which is still west of the reliable consensus. It continues to hit slightly later than its earlier runs, which continues its recent trend of landfalling later. Still, as mentioned by others above, it landfalls significantly earlier than most other models, which is probably why it is so much further west. The contrast between it and the 12Z UMKET, which landfalls some 24 hours later and is nearly 200 miles to the east, is mind boggling.
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Larry,
Great post!
This from NHC pretty well sums it up for the time being ...
The NHC track forecast therefore remains near the TVCN and GFEX aids as a course of least regret, but significant changes could be required to future advisories if the track of Leslie becomes more clear.
Phil
 
Current steering for current strength....and then when it gets a bit stronger. I would still favor a N movement into central GOM, then once the trof comes down, it will start moving NE. I do think the speed should keep up a bit because the flow is pretty fast at the moment.
wg8dlm1.GIF wg8dlm2.GIF
 
deltadog03 said:
Current steering for current strength....and then when it gets a bit stronger. I would still favor a N movement into central GOM, then once the trof comes down, it will start moving NE. I do think the speed should keep up a bit because the flow is pretty fast at the moment.
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WTH is that over the Carolinas? The center of the death ridge?
 
12Z Euro is slower/SSE of its 0Z run. Odds pretty high it will be slower & E of its 0Z run. Also, it’s slightly stronger than its 0Z run.
 
The quicker this gets it act together the quicker it will gain latitude early on.... by the looks of things I'll be surprised if it's as far east as the Ukie and I'm going to bet the Euro shifts slightly west. I think the NHC track looks good and I doubt we see wild swings with this one
 
He’s stationary now so the sooner he starts moving the further west it will track.


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... and from the 2:00 PM ...
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
... we've got some watching and waiting to do ... :(
 
metwannabe said:
The quicker this gets it act together the quicker it will gain latitude early on.... by the looks of things I'll be surprised if it's as far east as the Ukie and I'm going to bet the Euro shifts slightly west. I think the NHC track looks good and I doubt we see wild swings with this one
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Yeap the NHC has been dead on with it’s tracks lately.


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12Z Euro Hour 72: definitely coming in slower and will hit FL a good bit further east than its 0Z run.
 
I can't see a landfall in the big bend happening, comparing to the GFS the Euro is even slower than that but doesn't landfall in the big bend. I really hope slower/stronger doesn't actually happen.
 
Slightly slower, east and stronger of the 0z run
deltadog03 said:
OLD*** run....yesterday same time
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The forward speed of Michael after landfall is going to be extremely problematic especially if this makes lf as a major
 
Comparing to the 0z Euro I'd say once it's in Georgia it's a bit further north.

Comparing to yesterday's 12z Euro it's south though and stronger.
 
Man some large differences between the models . Hard to beat the euro / ukmet although the ukmet seems to be on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. So it’s the CMC , FV3 , HWRF and GFS which are west of the Euro , Icon and ukmet


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Storm5 said:
Man some large differences between the models . Hard to beat the euro / ukmet although the ukmet seems to be on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. So it’s the CMC , FV3 , HWRF and GFS which are west of the Euro , Icon and ukmet


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What's funny is it's usually the other way around .one thing to note I would say the GFS arguably did better than euro with Florence too.
 
This thing is like a rocket, I'm not even sure of the path across the Carolina's with the 24 hr maps but @144 it's still a Hurricane off the NE coast....dang
 
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