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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

NHC will need more evidence to corroborate the MSLP falls before going w/ a 5, it's a little premature for anyone to think they should do so unless there's more evidence which there isn't quite yet. Notice we've had more mesovort mergers in the eyewall and we lost the polygonal, high wavenumber structure, it's evolving into a distinct, inertially stable monopole.

Screen Shot 2018-10-10 at 11.23.12 AM.png
 
Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1030 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL STILL STRENGTHENING AS THE EYE NEARS THE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph
(240 km/h) with higher gusts. The aircraft also reported that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 923 mb (27.26 inches).
 
FFC appears to be upgrading some of the tropical storm warnings to hurricane warnings ...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1033 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.UPDATE...

...Hurricane Conditions Becoming More Likely For Portions of
Central Georgia...

All attention is on powerful Hurricane Michael as it churns
rapidly toward the Florida coast as a Major Category 4 storm.
Concern for the local area is that the storm will now be starting
from a more intense initial condition at landfall and increasing
forward speed will not allow as much weakening as previously
thought. That is not to say we are anticipating Hurricane force
sustained winds as this is still possible but perhaps not likely.
But what we will see is widespread Hurricane force wind gusts
within the Hurricane warned area. As we have seen from several
storms the past two years, the impacts of these gusts to the local
area are on par with sustained winds for other areas with less in
the way of trees.

Therefore, we are very much playing up the gust and Hurricane
impact potential and will be upgrading a portion of the Tropical
Storm warning to a Hurricane warning with this next issuance. Have
also increased the tornado threat for SE portions of the forecast
area beginning this afternoon and continuing through early Thu.
Flood impacts still looks on track with some flash flooding
possible with the anticipated 3 to 5 inches and locally higher
amounts.

&&

Deese
 
I can't imagine if this was actually headed to an area with any kind of substantial population or structures. Minus the few in and around Mexico Beach, the panhandle will be very very lucky!
 
Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1030 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL STILL STRENGTHENING AS THE EYE NEARS THE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph
(240 km/h) with higher gusts. The aircraft also reported that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 923 mb (27.26 inches).

And there we go, 150mph and 923 pressure.
 
HMON and HWRF nailed the landfalling pressures. Just... wow. I thought they were off their collective rocker showing below 945mb. Michael is about to put his name into the record books.
 
This is just insane. A chance to go sub 920mb easily here, winds will likely be 155-160 at landfall as the winds catch up.
goes16_ir_meso1_20181010153131.jpg
 
FFC even issued a Public InformationStatement!
000
NOUS42 KFFC 101509
PNSFFC
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-110400-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1109 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...Potentially Historic Tropical Event For Central and East Georgia...

Hurricane Michael is now a Category 4 Major Hurricane racing
toward the Florida panhandle. Storms of this intensity this time
of year moving this rapidly are exceedingly rare and the National
Hurricane Center has expressed the possibility of slightly further
strengthening just prior to landfall along the Florida coast.
Should this occur, with the rapid movement of the storm, weakening
would be limited such that Category 1 Hurricane-force winds would
still be felt over portions of central Georgia including areas
near Americus, Cordele, Perry, and Eastman.

With this being the tail end of Hurricane Season and with the
long ordeal of Hurricane Florence for some, it can be easy to
become complacent. This is not the storm to do that with!!
Regardless of any changes in intensity prior to landfall, it will
still result in the downing of hundreds to potentially thousands
of trees and powerlines leading to impassable roads for perhaps
days and loss of power for perhaps weeks.

There will also be an enhanced tornado risk along and south the
I85 corridor with the greatest risk across southeast portions of
the forecast area. Although the storm will be moving fairly
rapidly, rainfall totals could still exceed 5 inches in the same
southeast portions resulting in localized flash flooding.

Those outside the Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warning locations,
including the Atlanta metro should still prepare for locally
windy conditions that will be capable of bringing down trees and
powerlines.

While the impacts will be felt within the next 24 hours, there is
still time today to prepare. You can go to Ready.gov to find out
what steps you can take to be ready for this significant event. At
a minimum, those within the Hurricane Warning should make sure
they have water and food supplies sufficient for the next several
days and those with medical conditions requiring power should
prepare for the loss of electricity for potentially a week or
longer. PLEASE heed the messages from local emergency management
officials on potential shelters and other pertinent information.

$$
 
FFC appears to be upgrading some of the tropical storm warnings to hurricane warnings ...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1033 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.UPDATE...

...Hurricane Conditions Becoming More Likely For Portions of
Central Georgia...

All attention is on powerful Hurricane Michael as it churns
rapidly toward the Florida coast as a Major Category 4 storm.
Concern for the local area is that the storm will now be starting
from a more intense initial condition at landfall and increasing
forward speed will not allow as much weakening as previously
thought. That is not to say we are anticipating Hurricane force
sustained winds as this is still possible but perhaps not likely.
But what we will see is widespread Hurricane force wind gusts
within the Hurricane warned area. As we have seen from several
storms the past two years, the impacts of these gusts to the local
area are on par with sustained winds for other areas with less in
the way of trees.

Therefore, we are very much playing up the gust and Hurricane
impact potential and will be upgrading a portion of the Tropical
Storm warning to a Hurricane warning with this next issuance. Have
also increased the tornado threat for SE portions of the forecast
area beginning this afternoon and continuing through early Thu.
Flood impacts still looks on track with some flash flooding
possible with the anticipated 3 to 5 inches and locally higher
amounts.

&&

Deese
That is smart!
 
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