• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Appears that PC/PCB will be spared the brunt of this (NE eyewall)...turning hard NE now. Looks as though the brunt of Michael will be in a relatively undeveloped area east of PC.
 
Here's the most recent recon update with VDM pressure shown. From 947 to 932 since the first pass, very impressive.
recon_AF306-1314A-MICHAEL.png
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah normally the upwelling and dry air would be an issue but Michael seems pretty walled off from dry air intrusion now that the core has its act together and is moving in tandem with the shear thus minimizing its effects. Michael is also showing signs of speeding up to the NNE or NE now which will minimize any upwelling and there isn't much time left until landfall and the pressure continues to drop at a very fast rate. I think we are about to see history made here, unfortunately.
Click to expand...
We certainly don’t have long to wait to see. As someone with a lot of history in Laguna and PCB, I hope one history repeats itself here.
 
Looking at radar you can see some intense meso vortices distorting the eyewall at times as they rotate around... research has shown these usually occur in powerful category 4 or 5 storms and can even mix down stronger winds. Harvey was one where this was studied and documented after it made landfall. It's unusual to see with a landfalling storm and a very bad sign.
 
Not trying to make this an IMBY question, but I remember that the impact from Katrina even as far east as Georgia was major with outer bands and tornadoes. This storm, though stronger than Katrina, is not nearly as large. I wonder if the incoming trough would lessen that impact from the outer bands on the north and west side of the storm. I am concerned that areas as far north and west of Atlanta may see more than just rain and breezy weather from it.
At this point, even if the storms weakens as some people are claiming, it is still a powerful dangerous storm. There are many people in harms way and we need to be praying for them.
 
Here’s a great example of a meso vort distorting the eyewall.
FA5FA9A7-E38C-454F-BF70-92049A14DE62.png

Here’s winds about 9k feet up per radar.
84AE0C04-CCC8-4F84-8E50-9052FA3844F8.png
 
Shawn said:
Mike Bettes and crew were trying to leave Apalachicola, tried to leave, weather was too bad, so are staying now. Ruh roh.
Click to expand...
And this how people gets hurt and killed. Thinking well it be ok we won’t get hurt. Then waiting to last min and thinking oh crap we done missed up. Beside that rant. I hope they are ok.
 
The pressure is officially 931 mb as of the 9 am update:

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 86.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES
 
Shawn said:
Mike Bettes and crew were trying to leave Apalachicola, tried to leave, weather was too bad, so are staying now. Ruh roh.
Click to expand...
I have a feeling Bettes will eventually die from one of these storms he chases. Wasn't he the one who nearly died chasing a tornado in Oklahoma when the tornado tossed his car in the air ?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top