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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

I don't think I've ever seen a hurricane in this part of the Gulf not weaken before landfall. I know Opal weakened pretty significantly before landfall. I will be shocked if Michael doesn't weaken to 125-130 before landfall.

Or it could just maintain its current intensity. It's only 4-6hrs from landfall. Michael is clearly showing itself to be an anomaly compared to other GOM hurricanes.
 
Or it could just maintain its current intensity. It's only 4-6hrs from landfall. Michael is clearly showing itself to be an anomaly compared to other GOM hurricanes.
Who knows. But I will stick with history and say Michael will weaken 15-20 mph before landfall. Still a very bad storm either way. A hurricane can definitely weaken a lot though even in 4-6 hours.
 
Wave heights on a bouy in GOM

OVER 27 FT
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Interaction with land is my guess.

Storms that are intensifying can do so right until they are on land. A recent example of that is Harvey which continued to intensify until half the eye was over land. Recent hot towers and continued warming of the eye suggest this is at the very least maintaining strength if not steadily strengthening still.
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So, I have seen two local mets say it won't be near as bad as Florence here. I am not sure that is a good thing to say. It might not be as bad in terms of the rain, but the winds look like they could be higher here than we had with Florence.
 
The storm is effectively walled off from dry air right now... there is very little chance of it weakening and the radar presentation is actually continuing to improve. Winds probably won't increase from here but pressure may drop a little bit more.
 
Storms that are intensifying can do so right until they are on land. A recent example of that is Harvey which continued to intensify until half the eye was over land. Recent hot towers and continued warming of the eye suggest this is at the very least maintaining strength if not steadily strengthening still.

Just wanted to say kudos for calling this a couple of days ago. Looks like a low end Cat 5 is def possible by landfall.
 
Unlike Florence where most of the very strong winds were on the forward, southeastern flank of the storm, the NW side could be treacherous w/ Michael as the storm begins to undergo extratropical transition.

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