Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

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GaWx said:
The 18Z GEFS has many hits SC northward though it also has a few in the GA/FL/Gulf region. The key to these US hits is that Jose isn't nearby for protection via a weakening of the high to the north.
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Yeah. If we can't have a Jose to help, we may be watching a sequel. :confused: I didn't like this opening last time, and it seems to be similar.
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_41.png
 
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I don't see any real signs of unfavorable conditions at least through the islands early week, a major is certainly possible.
 
Definitely doubt it would come back that ferociously if it ran over Hispaniola as a strong major hurricane... That almost always doesn't go over well and cat 4-5 TCs that hit land, even if they have all the time in the world to come back, usually take their sweet time reintensifying after land interaction because the wind field broadens/flattens & a new inner core has to form as well which often takes at least 2-3 days... Plus it's the GFS...
 
if that huge ridge develops behind Jose Florida is doomed

There's like no other scenarios other than it dying from the Shredder

UKMET Is Irma Part II through the Caribbean
 
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