Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

[Webberweather53]

An area of disturbed weather several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands has shown some signs of organization the past few days and has some significant model support already to develop into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the north-central leeward islands in about 5-6 days or so.
1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

[Storm5]

An area of disturbed weather several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands has shown some signs of organization the past few days and has some significant model support already to develop into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the north-central leeward islands in about 5-6 days or so.
1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
View attachment 1225

00z Euro

06z gfs

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[ForsythSnow]

Here we go again. If I were to bet on one of these two making it to the US, I would go with this one given the current guidance. However, as has been the case for many, it's a bit far out. However, I feel we can at least get a name on this and/or 97L.

 

[whatalife]

I guess to say things are active is a bit of an understatement. I think this one has legs


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[ForsythSnow]

12z GFS wastes little time developing the two.

 

[Brent]

Gfs has a major hurricane in the Caribbean

 

[RBR71]

GFS has a hurricane south of Hispaniola...

 

[RBR71]

Gfs has a major hurricane in the Caribbean

Headed for the shredder Island this run...

 

[Brent]

UKMET near the northern Antilles Irma hit as a hurricane at 144

 

[RBR71]

GFS is weird... has potential "Lee" heading NW of Hispaniola and Jose heading SW towards Bermuda

 

[ForsythSnow]

GFS is weird... has potential "Lee" heading NW of Hispaniola and Jose heading SW towards Bermuda

It would actually be Maria as Lee forms before, then moved northward and dissipates. It is weird though. I wonder if Jose will take Maria away from land in the end.

 

[RBR71]

It would actually be Maria as Lee forms before, then moved northward and dissipates. It is weird though. I wonder if Jose will take Maria away from land in the end.

Dang it forgot to even look back and see if Lee had formed...

 

[Brent]

yeah looks like Jose hanging around so long allows Maria to recurve east of the US on the GFS

The previous 2 runs got close to FL before hitting GA/SC

 

[Brent]

Euro keeps this very weak across the islands and then it dies near the Shredder

 

[GaWx]

Regardless of what the various model runs show for 96L, the model consensus has a strong upper high over or near the NE US holding for a few days around days 8-11, which would be about the time 96L would probably be approaching the longitude of the US east coast. This is the kind of setup that makes the SE US potentially vulnerable for a landfall from the Atlantic underneath the high. Translation: no protective trough is suggested then meaning 96L appears to be at least a risk to the SE US at this early stage should it actually become a TC.

 

[Arcc]

Maria was a Cat 3 fish in 2005 just so everyone remembers.

 

[Brent]

GFS again with a strengthening hurricane crossing the Central Antilles Monday Night

 

[Brent]

945 mb south of Puerto Rico at 144, 30 mb! stronger than last run

936 mb about to hit the Shredder but thats a major hurricane easily

Edit barely hits the eastern tip of the Shredder and is still a significant hurricane moving into the Bahamas at 192

 

[Webberweather53]

945 mb south of Puerto Rico at 144, 30 mb! stronger than last run

936 mb about to hit the Shredder but thats a major hurricane easily

Yeah that may almost be a 5 given how high the MSLP normally is for cat 5s in the east-central Caribbean

 

[Brent]

In the SE Bahamas at 200 hours and ridging is building off the EC with Jose gone

 

[Brent]

This gonna be interesting

 

[pcbjr]

This gonna be interesting

Can I say - No it's not ...

 

[Brent]

240 hours heading for Florida 920 mb no path north

 

[Brent]

Wheee

 

[pcbjr]

may I curse, profusely, now?

 

[Brent]

over Tampa at 300 hours headed for the Gulf

 

[Brent]

curves into the Eastern Panhandle at 312 so not much Gulf

But it is fantasy land

 

[Brent]

GFS all in with a major hurricane near Puerto Rico the same time Jose is hitting New England next week

Looks like it will come down to what Jose does, if he hangs around he leaves the door open for 96L/Maria to recurve and miss the US

If he just recurves and leaves quickly then Maria probably threatens the US

Or the GFS hangs a dying Jose out near NYC which leaves a path for Maria to hit NYC

 

[Webberweather53]

UKMET intensifies 96L into a category 2, 973mb hurricane and is just north of the Leeward Islands in 6 days


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.1N 51.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2017 48 13.1N 51.1W 1008 29
1200UTC 17.09.2017 60 13.6N 53.7W 1006 33
0000UTC 18.09.2017 72 14.2N 55.1W 1003 37
1200UTC 18.09.2017 84 14.9N 56.3W 1001 41
0000UTC 19.09.2017 96 15.5N 57.2W 994 53
1200UTC 19.09.2017 108 16.4N 58.2W 988 59
0000UTC 20.09.2017 120 17.2N 59.5W 983 60
1200UTC 20.09.2017 132 17.9N 60.8W 980 59
0000UTC 21.09.2017 144 18.4N 61.9W 973 66

 

[RBR71]

GFS all in with a major hurricane near Puerto Rico the same time Jose is hitting New England next week

Looks like it will come down to what Jose does, if he hangs around he leaves the door open for 96L/Maria to recurve and miss the US

If he just recurves and leaves quickly then Maria probably threatens the US

Or the GFS hangs a dying Jose out near NYC which leaves a path for Maria to hit NYC

06z GFS gets Jose out of the way and allows Maria to turn back and landfall in SC.... you're spot on, we won't have any idea until we see what Jose does and heck even modeling struggling with that at this point

 

[whatalife]

06z GFS gets Jose out of the way and allows Maria to turn back and landfall in SC.... you're spot on, we won't have any idea until we see what Jose does and heck even modeling struggling with that at this point

I do not approve. BUT thankfully the models are in their clueless mode.


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[ForsythSnow]

I do not approve. BUT thankfully the models are in their clueless mode.


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Neither do I. And yes, it is too far out to know, but watching trends and H5 patterns will help us know where it could go. If we keep seeing runs like that, it will be another long 2 weeks.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Can anyone guess where this is headed this run? I am sure you know already by how it looks. Looks almost like it is being slung NW like Irma was, but in a different area by a different kind of upper level disturbance. This one breaks off of Jose it seems.

 

[RBR71]

Can anyone guess where this is headed this run? I am sure you know already by how it looks. Looks almost like it is being slung NW like Irma was, but in a different area by a different kind of upper level disturbance. This one breaks off of Jose it seems.

I was about to post same image, next frame starts to verify this...... gfs says if jose doesn't get you I'll send Maria in good grief

 

[ForsythSnow]

I was about to post same image, next frame starts to verify this...... gfs says if jose doesn't get you I'll send Maria in good grief

Lol yeah Jose is going to be areal pain or helper dependent on if he lives another day. If we see Jose survive, we may get interaction between the two and they will be pulled away. However, if they stay separate, we may have a double hit on Jose unless a trough kicks him away

 

[RBR71]

Lol yeah Jose is going to be areal pain or helper dependent on if he lives another day. If we see Jose survive, we may get interaction between the two and they will be pulled away. However, if they stay separate, we may have a double hit on Jose unless a trough kicks him away

Yeah freakin unreal, this going to be an interesting couple of weeks most likely..

 

[ForsythSnow]

Well, NC hurricane it looks like. H5 says last minute turn unlikely.

 

[Brent]

The upper air pattern is so wildly different run to run I'm not convinced of anything but José probably will have a lot to do with the track

 

[ForsythSnow]

Truncation saves the look from being as nasty, but I expect that to have been a cat 4 at landfall.

 

[whatalife]

NC...You are the loser this run


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