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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

Webberweather53

Meteorologist
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Location
Desert Southwest ?
An area of disturbed weather several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands has shown some signs of organization the past few days and has some significant model support already to develop into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the north-central leeward islands in about 5-6 days or so.
1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Screen Shot 2017-09-14 at 9.25.23 AM.png
 
An area of disturbed weather several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands has shown some signs of organization the past few days and has some significant model support already to develop into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the north-central leeward islands in about 5-6 days or so.
1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
View attachment 1225
00z Euro

06z gfs
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I guess to say things are active is a bit of an understatement. I think this one has legs


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yeah looks like Jose hanging around so long allows Maria to recurve east of the US on the GFS

The previous 2 runs got close to FL before hitting GA/SC
 
Regardless of what the various model runs show for 96L, the model consensus has a strong upper high over or near the NE US holding for a few days around days 8-11, which would be about the time 96L would probably be approaching the longitude of the US east coast. This is the kind of setup that makes the SE US potentially vulnerable for a landfall from the Atlantic underneath the high. Translation: no protective trough is suggested then meaning 96L appears to be at least a risk to the SE US at this early stage should it actually become a TC.
 
945 mb south of Puerto Rico at 144, 30 mb! stronger than last run

936 mb about to hit the Shredder but thats a major hurricane easily

Edit barely hits the eastern tip of the Shredder and is still a significant hurricane moving into the Bahamas at 192
 
Last edited:
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