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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

I thought Maria was a done deal and going to go harmlessly out to sea. At least that's what WRAL mets were saying a couple of days ago. I honestly quit following it, and then see today it might be a threat to NC after all, at least the OBX. Just shows you how Mother Nature has her own ideas. Seems this hurricane has been out there forever, too.
 
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Never saw the OTS as a definite solution during this storm, and this is exactly why you can't hug a 7 day solution. Hurricanes are very unpredictable still. If we see no Jose in coming runs, the Outer Banks may want to think about preparation. In fact, they should already be preparing for at least some wind.
 
SD said:
The pattern sucks so bad for rain a hurricane near the outer banks can't get it done

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Yeah, this blows! I havnt had a drop of rain since Irma ! Storm 5's favorite , the 384 hour 18z GFS , gives you and I , exactly 0 rain, that's through October 9th, I believe, with the upcoming 90s, we are winning at suck! :(
 
These are a little west, OBX needs to keep close eye on Maria
15L_tracks_00z.png
 
A stall or slowdown from Maria was a concern as far back as last weekend as the models consistently had the quasi banana ridge to the north fairly well established above 500mb's. Sure there was a path in the lower levels but even then it just didn't make sense that Maria was going to shoot right up there and go OTS the way the models were forecasting 4 or 5 days ago There just wasn't anything in the runs that pointed to strong steering. Speaking of which, I have been amazed at the lack of steering in the Atlantic and the east Pacific the last month or so. Nearly every storm in both basins has slowed to a crawl or stalled in the last few weeks. With the persistent trof (and crazy cool weather in the Midwest) in the eastern conus this summer I really wasn't expecting anything to get close to land from the Atlantic as we approached peak season (bingo the pattern flips as if on cue lol). If that pattern starts to re-assert itself and the weakness trends back to around 85W the way it's been this summer, the west coast of Florida and the NE Gulf could be in for an October surprise. Just my :weenie: opinion, now back to Umphrey's :)
 
Jackstraw said:
A stall or slowdown from Maria was a concern as far back as last weekend as the models consistently had the quasi banana ridge to the north fairly well established above 500mb's. Sure there was a path in the lower levels but even then it just didn't make sense that Maria was going to shoot right up there and go OTS the way the models were forecasting 4 or 5 days ago There just wasn't anything in the runs that pointed to strong steering. Speaking of which, I have been amazed at the lack of steering in the Atlantic and the east Pacific the last month or so. Nearly every storm in both basins has slowed to a crawl or stalled in the last few weeks. With the persistent trof (and crazy cool weather in the Midwest) in the eastern conus this summer I really wasn't expecting anything to get close to land from the Atlantic as we approached peak season (bingo the pattern flips as if on cue lol). If that pattern starts to re-assert itself and the weakness trends back to around 85W the way it's been this summer, the west coast of Florida and the NE Gulf could be in for an October surprise. Just my :weenie: opinion, now back to Umphrey's :)
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Man, I hope you're wrong ;)
 
12Z GEFS mean: east shift vs the 6Z GEFS mean and about 2 degrees/120 miles east of the 18Z GEFS mean. One member comes onshore and goes inland, a couple of others are very nearshore, and the rest are offshore.

However, the 12Z GEFS mean doesn't get any further west than about 73.2W (tomorrow). She's already near 73.0W and is still moving NNW as noted in the post above this. So, the 12Z GEFS mean is liable to end up east of the actual track.
 
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