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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

From Allan Huffman just fyi....

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Jackstraw said:
HDOB drops showing some "possible" outer wind maximas forming outside the eye. Keyword is possible. Looking desperately for anything to weaken it somehow before the islands and PR.
Click to expand...
Yeah NHC mentions this as well but so far hasn't done anything to halt the strengthening of the inner eyewall

The aircraft data also indicates that an outer wind maximum is present
about 20-30 n mi from the center, but this has not yet developed
into enough of an outer eyewall to stop the intensification in the
inner eyewall.
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah NHC mentions this as well but so far hasn't done anything to halt the strengthening of the inner eyewall

The aircraft data also indicates that an outer wind maximum is present
about 20-30 n mi from the center, but this has not yet developed
into enough of an outer eyewall to stop the intensification in the
inner eyewall.
Click to expand...
Sometimes when the storms are very strong the forming outer eyewall just kinda of contracts inward and merges with the inner eyewall
instead of a full on collapse of the inner eyewall. You end up with the inner eye somewhat bigger than it was and yeah not much if any weakening.
 
The winds are looking a little weaker in the NE wall on this last pass, based on what Levi's site is showing.
 
This is going to be extremely bad for Puerto Rico. Winds will continue to increase as the pressure drops. The last major hit they took was from Hugo way back in 1989.

Sadly, I do not see a sign of an eyewall replacement cycle yet.
 
recon_AF303-0515A-MARIA.png

Maria now holds sole possession of 12th place on the Atlantic's all time lowest Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) list for tropical cyclones if the 913 hPa minimum central pressure stands (which it likely will). Strongest since Hurricane Dean (2007) & Wilma (2005)...
Screen Shot 2017-09-19 at 6.03.03 PM.png
 
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Shawn said:
This is going to be extremely bad for Puerto Rico. Winds will continue to increase as the pressure drops. The last major hit they took was from Hugo way back in 1989.

Sadly, I do not see a sign of an eyewall replacement cycle yet.
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Yeah, I feel bad for them! TWC has Paul Goodloe live from San Juan! Wonder if he stays for landfall!?
 
Don't forget with both Harvey and Irma models trended West as much as 200 miles within 1-4 days of landfall. Models have under estimated the High Pressure since Hurricane Season started. With that said, they have been decent at beginning of track till the High came into play. Food for thought.
 
Latest extrapolated MSLP continues to tank in the center of Maria... 909 hPa w/ 20 kt wind (equates to ~906-907 mb). Dropsonde will probably find something closer to 910 hPa.
Recon Maria 630pm Sep 19 2017.png
 
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