• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

So close

received_1530712587012059.png
 
Everything that does go west seems like it hits a wall at the coast. So glancing blow worst case for now??? Told my kid in Wiliamsburg not to sweat it yet...but keep the car full.
 
Watch how the slightly slower Maria and weaker more NE Jose allows the ridges to bridge and Maria turns back west. If Jose doesn't erode the western edge of the atlantic ridge this has a chance to come farther west
737a7cd929cfaf13f5686a6a242f922b.gif


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
If this does make it West then slows down stalls before the trough kicks it out I could actually see this ending up being more of a rain / flooding threat.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Regarding landfalls, FL & GA remain safe. SC is very close to safe but not a done deal up near Myrtle. NC obviously is still at risk, especially the OB. Regardless, the GFS pressures are laughably way too low imo like usual for just off the US east coast just like it was with Jose and also Irma in the FL Straits. Add 20+ mb & that should be closer.
 
Yeah I'm not so convinced Maria would be a significant hurricane even if it did make the obx the slow motion the shear and the fact jose just went over the same waters I'm guessing it'll probably be barely a hurricane at worst flooding would obviously be a bigger problem
 
Gfs is slightly stronger with the ridging this run but also slightly NE with Maria.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Brent said:
GFS is definitely northeast

Close but no cigar this run
Click to expand...
Nope steering goes kaput at 120 and it's just going to sit there until the westerlies blast it ots. For it to get farther west probably need a stronger height falls over the SE and more interaction with that area

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
UKMET comes within a few miles of Hatteras

0000UTC 27.09.2017 96 34.9N 75.5W 946 75
1200UTC 27.09.2017 108 35.8N 75.0W 955 66
 
Euro is west already at 48 hours

at 72 hours it looks like its gonna be very close to the OBX

over 100 miles west at 72 yikes

at 96 its about a degree east of Hatteras longtitude, still way west from previous runs
 
Last edited:
Gets within 75 miles or so of Hatteras but should recurve here still significantly west of previous runs

ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_7.png
 
Strike probabilities and all models with ensembles from Huffman.... notice official track is east I bet we see it shift west today
a45fc24827d6d78c71fe9c2be34855ec.jpg
c0199e0414fd39f101a74b4468b449ee.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
06z gfs stalls right off coast before being kicked ots, with this look will not be surprised to see a little more west shift fortunately should be a cat 1 at best
f429068bb5428da45562f27d51ce5fff.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
Strike probabilities and all models with ensembles from Huffman.... notice official track is east I bet we see it shift west today
a45fc24827d6d78c71fe9c2be34855ec.jpg
c0199e0414fd39f101a74b4468b449ee.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah, no denying that the OFC track is way too far east. They would have to be lying at 11 if they maintained their same statement of remaining in the model envelope while maintaining the same track. I expect a shift closer to OBX.
 
This could get interesting...
"The recent westward shifts in the forecast track make it more likely that Maria would avoid the cold wake and move over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Since the environment may not be as hostile as the dynamical models are assuming, the NHC intensity forecast is a little above the intensity consensus for much of the forecast period."

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
UKMET went a little east, close call but a miss, about 40-50 miles east of Hatteras

000UTC 27.09.2017 84 34.5N 74.3W 947 80
1200UTC 27.09.2017 96 35.3N 74.0W 944 76
0000UTC 28.09.2017 108 35.5N 73.1W 954 70

Strangely the CMC which has been a western model(with a landfall unlike other models) shifted way east and totally misses
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top