• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

Gfs is really bridging the NE and atlantic ridges but the ghost of Jose might be enough to still steer Maria ots

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
The increase in EPS spread isn't that surprising given the models continue to back down on the intensity of Jose in the longer term and thus are breaking down the steering currents over Maria after day 4. This is why we needed to wait until about Friday or so before feeling confident about an OTS route and confidence is degrading once more
 
Webberweather53 said:
The increase in EPS spread isn't that surprising given the models continue to back down on the intensity of Jose in the longer term and thus are breaking down the steering currents over Maria after day 4. This is why we needed to wait until about Friday or so before feeling confident about an OTS route and confidence is degrading once more
Click to expand...
Now that got my attention lol
 
What a tough forecast to be honest, conventional wisdom says OTS, but there is some real possibilities of this getting closer and closer to the coast.
 
deltadog03 said:
What a tough forecast to be honest, conventional wisdom says OTS, but there is some real possibilities of this getting closer and closer to the coast.
Click to expand...
The slower it gets, the higher the chance of a curve toward land it seems. The NAVGEM illustrates that perfectly. Also... Yikes.
recon_AF305-1315A-MARIA_dropsonde4_20170922-0121.png
 
Maria's direction has yet to really change it seems. May affect more islands that we thought. Also, seeing the strength jump was a surprise. I bet we see a cat 4 at 11 with that strength, or a strengthening storm.

Maria also seems to be remaining well south of the NHC's forecast path, and is wobbling immensely.
 
I know it's the NAM but @54 Jose basically gone, ridge building and there is that ull in the SE... something to watch
6ccecbb0c164f4aed2e77c1d4c187caf.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
LOL the CMC is hilarious

Maria is moving north fine til Tuesday like the other models, then it stalls, and turns SW into NC before then recurving NE back over the Outer Banks...

Can't make this stuff up

14ul2zk.gif
 
Last edited:
Everything else shows Maria safely ots.... good riddance

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Also keep in mind if somehow or another Maria were to turn into the coast she would probably be a minimum hurricane at best nothing like the monster she wants was.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
I am still not sure where she will ultimately go. She is still moving ME and was supposed to turn sharply to the NNW yesterday. Whenever she decides to turn will be key, as I feel it has been slow so far. The fur the further sw it goes, the higher the chance of a us hit or scrape.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I am still not sure where she will ultimately go. She is still moving ME and was supposed to turn sharply to the NNW yesterday. Whenever she decides to turn will be key, as I feel it has been slow so far. The fur the further sw it goes, the higher the chance of a us hit or scrape.
Click to expand...

If it makes it. Southwesterly shear is shreading Maria right now.
 
If that high holds on a little longer and the trough is a little slower anything could happen

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
GFS sending a big cold shot down east of the Rockies as Maria exits stage right, that's usually a precursor to western Caribbean/GOM/BOC tropical cyclone development as the cold air masses late in the hurricane season lead to pressure rises over the continent and help localize upward motion over the adjacent and still very warm ocean...
 
Euro OTS with Maria (& still seems a bit overzealous w/ intensity, which could have long-term track implications), regardless here comes a big shot of arctic air plunging into the east-central US by day 6-7 with blocking encapsulating eastern North America practically on all sides... Going to feel a lot more like fall as we roll into October. Of course, as mentioned earlier, this airmass could help excite tropical activity over the Caribbean later down the road
ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png
 
The European continues to trend down w/ Jose's intensity in the short-medium range, and thus allows this ridge to Maria's north to build in more & more every run... Maria is also not intensifying as much as anticipated, and neither of these trends are helping its chances to go out to sea in a hurry, not sure if it will be enough to send her to the US but if these trends that have been ongoing for several days continue, this could get a lot more interesting for the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and New England in subsequent runs
Unknown.gif
 
in the real world it appears that maria has been just a bit east of due north for the last couple of hours......clearly placing it east at this time from any model projection.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top