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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Long week and a half coming up. Timing of the trough pulling out of the region and how far NW the ridge expands are the keys across the region.
Brent
Member
It's gonna be a long week and a half
Henry2326
Member
This map says it all....here we go again
EPS through 240 :
Might be longer than that. We will be extremely lucky to get through the next 2 weeks without a US hit. I guess we can hope that any systems remain on the weak side. Things have been a mess out there so far this season...maybe that trend will continue. But I'm going with a 75% chance of a major making US landfall over the next 3 weeks...maybe multiple. Favoring the Gulf right now.
Brent
Member
Need a lot of cold fronts, to help kick everything East, it’s that time of year we are getting them now to help save us. I worry about the gulf tho, anything in western Caribbean will explode and have no way out
Shaggy
Member
Similar to Irma track wise. It's an eternity away and the modeling will change constantly.
Henry2326
Member
12z CMC.....98L takes the energy.....although both in the gulf...
Henry2326
Member
UK 12z....8/23...following Euro and Icon
BHS1975
Member
Brent
Member
Laura?
Satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure located
about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become
better organized since yesterday, with increasing banding features
near the center. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within a
couple days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure located
about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become
better organized since yesterday, with increasing banding features
near the center. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within a
couple days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
GeorgiaGirl
Member
98L has already had that look that it might be big, hopefully not or if it happens it's OTS.
18Z GEFS.
Mean builds heights over 98L forcing it West.
Mean builds heights over 98L forcing it West.
Jon
Member
Nice video by Levi about 98L
Thinking this is going to get better understood in the next 48 hours, once an area of known defined circulation forms and especially when a storm is formed.
Right now, models have no clue.
Thinking this is going to get better understood in the next 48 hours, once an area of known defined circulation forms and especially when a storm is formed.
Right now, models have no clue.
Shaggy
Member
Henry2326
Member
I don't see an OTS with this beast...
Brent
Member
CMC hits Houston
What a wide spread if the Euro holds to a recurve(fyi the ukmet is pretty far NE at the end of its run too)
What a wide spread if the Euro holds to a recurve(fyi the ukmet is pretty far NE at the end of its run too)
Brent
Member
I don't think I've ever seen two storms threatening Florida and Texas at the same time lol
but it is 2020...
you'd have to think one would shear the other though?
Yeah, if that has happened, it would almost have to be an extremely rare event. I'm guessing that the stronger 97L GEFS members mainly have weak 98L and vice versa.
Suffice it to say, what 98L will or won't do and where it will go will be quite dependent on what 97L does and where it goes.
Brent
Member
Uh nevermind about the ukmet that is definitely not a recurve look
I'm very curious to see if the Euro still recurves
I'm very curious to see if the Euro still recurves
Yeah, that is very scary with the 597 dm ridge moving westward in tandem. But the good news is that the UK has somewhat of a tendency to be too far left (a well known bias) due I think to too strong ridging to its north.
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Brent
Member
Meanwhile the HWRF is hyped up
Brent
Member
Did the Euro just cave to the GFS lmao
BHS1975
Member
Which one of these is 98L?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
Here was the 6z EPS
