Tropical Major Hurricane Isaias

[iGRXY]

Eye is clearing. It’ll have a few hours here to intensify. My guess is it has a real shot af peaking around 120 mph

 

[Downeastnc]

gonna be close....looks good for now, this is going to be a pretty small intense core, hurricane winds are only forecast to be 40 miles or so across but on the east side there could be hurricane force gust along the coast out a good 75 miles or so.

 

[DustinWx]

I’m headed to Florida- I’ll stream when I can

 

[Tsappfrog20]

This is why they aborted the mission last night.





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[GeorgiaGirl]

Basically brunt forced itself to a major it seems. Impressive. (Was a little early with what I deleted and am honestly going off presentation here)

Still have some of the hurricane models running but the HMON/HWRF suggest a peak in the upper 950’s.

 

[RollTide18]

gonna be close....looks good for now, this is going to be a pretty small intense core, hurricane winds are only forecast to be 40 miles or so across but on the east side there could be hurricane force gust along the coast out a good 75 miles or so.

A baby Dennis of sorts, it actually made landfall as a major but the hurricane wind field was very small and weakened to a TS in sw Alabama.

 

[Downeastnc]

Tough spot for forecasters...got a 12 hr window where the storm may or may not get sheared and weaken right before landfall.

 

[malak05]

Feels like we are on in middle of a pendulum with this storm right now waiting for a swing one way or another. It has definitely got it's act together over yesterday afternoon and night. It's very healthy looking right now and right at Cat 3 broadline. It still looks to strengthen over the next few hours. The stronger it gets before any shear impact coming into shore this afternoon the chances it holds together adjusts impact and the more pop it has at landfall definitely has a substantial downstream impact further inland.

 

[jrips27]

 

[Brent]

120 kt FL we might have a major

Usually that's enough

 

[Belle Lechat]

...ISAIAS ON THE CUSP OF MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...PREPARATIONS WITHIN THE STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BE COMPLETED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

7:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 Location: 27.0°N 87.7°W Moving: NNE at 15 mph Min pressure: 958 mb Max sustained: 110 mph

 

[jrips27]

There it is

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
720 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

...ISAIAS BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Just-received data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Isaias has strengthened to a major hurricane
with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. The minimum central pressure measured from a dropsonde is
959 mb (28.32 inches).

 

[Downeastnc]

If this thing was 150-200 miles further west gas prices would jump to $7 probably.

 

[malak05]

Yeap, it picked up 10 MPH in a few short hours and now it's watching to see just how much longer it builds?

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Officially now a Cat 3!


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[jrips27]

Last minute tick east from the Google Deepmind guidance

 

[jrips27]

 

[Belle Lechat]

The eye being massaged

 

[Tsappfrog20]

This thing is cranking this morning!!




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[Belle Lechat]

 

[SnowmasterATL]

A potential race to Cat 4 status?

 

[Brent]

Still running east of the track too... Always bet on east

It's gonna have to turn left to hit Pensacola

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Still running east of the track too... Always bet on east

It's gonna have to turn left to hit Pensacola

East on tropical systems, NW on winter systems. Easy money

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I swear, this newfangled GDM AI trash almost takes the fun out of being a weather weenie. No need to track every recon flight and satellite image. Just peek at the model a few days out and plan accordingly.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Got some close friends who are in Chipley FL they might end up either getting the Eye or the NE Quad


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[NoSnowATL]

Bands of rain started early this morning, breezy but nothing crazy. This afternoon should be fun.

 

[Brent]

I swear, this newfangled GDM AI trash almost takes the fun out of being a weather weenie. No need to track every recon flight and satellite image. Just peek at the model a few days out and plan accordingly.

Haha but seriously they always pull east. It really should be written somewhere. Charley and Irma were supposed to bury Tampa...

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The storm's ability to continuously fire upshear convection since its inception is quite amazing.

 

[Belle Lechat]

A potential race to Cat 4 status?

113 kt looks achieveable after looking at flight level wind numbers.

Meanwhile, mb dropping between recon passes

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

It may have leveled off for now, but by the way it's tracking (eastward), isn't it tracking the way it needs to so far to avoid the worst impacts of the shear and for any weakening before landfall to be slight?

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[snowc]

THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR CENTRAL NC! YELLOW BOXES AND RED LIGHTS ARE LIKELY

 

[Arcc]

A potential race to Cat 4 status?

Possible. The hurricane models have bounced around but always have shown the possibility to reach 115 to 120kts before weakening close to landfall.

 

[RBR71]

Eye showing up on radar now. Almost go time down there

 

[Arcc]

Looking at the hurricane models, there is a very legitimate chance this makes landfall as a MH. Even if it technically doesn't, for instance the HWRF has Cat 3 winds almost on the coast.

 

[jrips27]

 

[malak05]

Looks like we got some more wrap around firing of storms starting to pick up on last scan of IR

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

 

[RBR71]

Looking at the hurricane models, there is a very legitimate chance this makes landfall as a MH. Even if it technically doesn't, for instance the HWRF has Cat 3 winds almost on the coast.

Land likes to help tighten these things up, so maybe just enough to offset the shear until just after LF. Gonna be close for sure

 

[Belle Lechat]