A few towers starting to fire up in the SW quadrant we will see where they go
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Tropical Major Hurricane Isaias
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NoSnowATL
Member
Feels weird being on the bad side for once. 
Tsappfrog20
Member
Your not too far from some friends of mine who are in Chipley
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Downeastnc
Member
Watching the IR loop on tropical its pretty evident that its finally getting the effects of the dry air and shear....looks much worse now than just 45 mins ago....lots of warming tops and limited new storm development....also radar looks less scary its weakening just a matter of how much before landfall.
HHs getting 115knt Flight level so far.
GFS went east a bit
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Pressure still falling too. It seems like it's not even weakening despite the IR appearance.
Downeastnc
Member
Could end up where the flight level winds are much higher than what they see at the surface, without the strong storms they wont mix down as well. Had that happen here a few times, Isabel had a pressure here of 955 and we only gusted to 50 with 100 knts a few thousand ft up because the SW eyewall had no storms to get them down. The IR loop certainly doesnt scream strengthening storm....
Looks like it's trying to cover the dry slot. Also looks like eye is warming.
Tsappfrog20
Member
It continues to shift East with Landfall
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Not good for the mountains.
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah looks funny on radar like there were or are two centers that are merging...again its long range on the radar so its hard to tell...
90 knts at the surface in the NE eyewall that first pass....
Tsappfrog20
Member
Solid CAT 3. 961 splash, so it's likely peaked
Must've been a MERC then because that eye is warming on IR.
Not suprising. This happened in Michael, Helene, ect while under SW shear during these long drawn out intensifcation cycles. Wouldn't suprise me to see a little more strength squeezed out before that SW quad finally becomes affected.
iGRXY
Member
3-6" looks like a really good bet around my neck of the woods. 6"+ on the southern and eastern slopes. That's been ticking up today. Wind is also becoming more of an issue vs previously thought.
Carolina Fever
Member
Seems to be the norm now for them to not weaken as expected or how they have in the past.
Agreed. Here in Brevard to Cedar Mountain NWS keeps inching up our totals and winds.
He's still firing up convection on 3 sides, fighting the shear with tenacity.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Definitely looks like it did in fact complete a ERC or at least a Merger under 40kts of shear! I don’t see this weakening much before landfall
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Oh my
I definitely think it will weaken, just not until that convection stops firing and rotating upstream. Its just currently in the best place to maintain or slightly increase in intensity. Eventually the shear will increase to counter act that.
Hopefully that’s not the case as that would be absolutely awful for those impacted.
When though?
136 kt flight level winds found. Now a Cat 4
Downeastnc
Member
Crazy its still holding up...
BufordWX
Member
120/959
Snow_chaser
Member
Any links or recommendations for storm chasers live feeds ?
Based on the hurricane models earlier, within 6 hrs plus or minus of landfall. This strengthening episode has been predicted well by the hurricane models for the most part, we can assume the weakening part is as well.
135 knots FL. Wow!
And you can see the western eyewall disruption Levi mentioned clearly. Although satellite imagery shows intense convection refiring, so that may just be a blip.
And you can see the western eyewall disruption Levi mentioned clearly. Although satellite imagery shows intense convection refiring, so that may just be a blip.
Downeastnc
Member
Looking at all the eyewall drops on the recon flights so far and nothing above 100knts in the eyewall so far.
Big winds just off the deck. I'm sure some of that is mixing down in gusts.
In any case, the expanse of strong wind on the east side is going to be a problem not only on the coast, but well inland as it unravels later.
One thing to note is that strong N/NE hurricanes usually turn NW later than models predicted
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I don't see this going too far west after landfall especially given recent model runs. The center likely will only drift a bit west post-landfall (central to central western AL at most)
BKWRN29
Member
The most frustrating thing about all of this, especially with all the technology available, is that they still can’t make a solid prediction on what actually going to happen! The difference between a cat 2 and 3/4 is major!! And I’m not bashing anyone in particular, I am just extremely nervous and frustrated!