• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)

pcbjr said:
She took a taste of Cuba and does not like soil ... Does she like Tampa cigars? Or Big Bend grouper sandwiches? Or Creole? Or is she hummin' "Alabama Getaway"? This thing is far from settled ...
Click to expand...

Maybe she's singing Sweet Home Alabama!
 
Well, don’t see this too often. A Tropical storm watch. With winds gusting up to 70mph
 
pcbjr said:
She took a taste of Cuba and does not like soil ... Does she like Tampa cigars? Or Big Bend grouper sandwiches? Or Creole? Or is she hummin' "Alabama Getaway"? This thing is far from settled ...
Click to expand...
Ok Phil, don't give her any ideas. o_O:confused:
 
OK.. total novice here.. looking at the 18z.. the high over the great lakes appears to be expanding.. what does that mean?
 
Run is not horribly off from 12z UKMET if I am not mistaken. In fact, UKMET may have ended up a bit further East in GA.
 
Gfs is west this run, but east from other models.
 
Considering Irma is moving at a W/WNW, i have a hard time believing that it will go due north. I think she is gonna follow suit with the EPS members
 
5pm update, track is now more west and NHC is projecting Irma to remain a hurricane up to GA.
76c005b5be5eebc0695cf74b47c8f4bf.jpg


Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
accu35 said:
From this point you can toss out models like these thats start off wrong
Click to expand...
Models are still useful for the short term trends at the steering level. Watch how they develop the steering flow then apply that to what you see real time and don't lend too much weight to their forecast track. Getting into the time frame the Met's start really earning their money as humans can discern the finer nuances of the atmosphere at this range if they are worth their salt and have experience. Just my opinion as a carbon based entity :cool:
 
Jackstraw said:
Models are still useful for the short term trends at the steering level. Watch how they develop the steering flow then apply that to what you see real time and don't lend too much weight to their forecast track. Getting into the time frame the Met's start really earning their money as humans can discern the finer nuances of the atmosphere at this range if they are worth their salt and have experience. Just my opinion as a carbon based entity :cool:
Click to expand...
JS - So glad you're here, Man!
Aiko ... :D
 
billdurham said:
OK.. total novice here.. looking at the 18z.. the high over the great lakes appears to be expanding.. what does that mean?
Click to expand...
I can see what you're talking about. Due to the ridge expanding, that is what is going to steer Irma more on a west track now vs a north track. Ridges and troughs steer wind currents and the tracks of low pressure systems.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
From the last update from the NHC, they said it's moving WNW. To me, it appears to be moving westerly with some WSW wobbles. Irma should cut WNW at any moment or later this evening/tonight. If not, then there's more of a GOM threat.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
HRRR tugs it NW very soon.
 
What causes so many of these ERCs? Seems like every time I read about it going through one and pressures drop, but it doesn't seem to be intensifying even though the eye tightens up.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top