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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)

Now I think I can say the rains from Irma are done. It was a very impressive windshow for most of today I thought.
 
Man we been gettging it rough here in upstate ever since bout 2pm. Trees down everywhere, lots of power outages, winds still around 40mph at times. Just now had a 38 gust. We've had 1.25" of rain
 
Talk about going against climo
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Kinda makes me sad to see her fall apart like she has. One of the most photogenic Atlantic hurricanes I had ever seen!
 
Is the weather really that bad in Atlana today that my company's office there needs to close today? I mean, they want us to come to work in Raleigh one day after a snow storm.
 
Storm5 said:
Talk about going against climo
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Seems to be happening more and more. I know in winter the past few years there have been times people say things should happen with winter storms based on climo, but they ended up not happening that way. Seems to be getting harder and harder to forecast what any type of storm will do around here based on what used to happen.
 
5" of rain from Irma here, so while it trended down a bit some of the higher totals predicted by the GFS weren't so crazy in at least my case.
 
Rosie said:
So sad for the victims, have many friends in S FL, so far all ok. Now I have a 3 cat lap
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Well, hopefully we get some 3 cat nights this winter. I used to wake up having trouble breathing, only to discover I had 30 lbs of cats on my chest, lol. Now nature got the big wind out of it's system, it's time for the big cad endless drizzle for Thanksgiving, then the big sleet come Jan and Feb. :) T
 
Now the more complicated part: Which model performed the best out of all of them? Here is the running list I had of all the models including a half time update. Anything I am missing? Sounds like the UKMET outperformed the Euro initially by taking it the furthest west, but fell short by keeping it at SC.
  • ECMWF - Powerful Category 3 to 5 just north of Greater Antilles, possibly into Florida. As of September 3, 2017: Modeled somewhere between OTS and NC, ensembles OTS to Gulf.
  • CMC - Strong cat 2 or 3 hurricane just north of the Greater Antilles. As of September 3, 2017: Into the Mid Atlantic or NC. Strong hurricane into Miami, then into NC up into the Mid Atlantic.
  • GFS - Strong hurricane, possibly cat 4 to 5 but out to sea or close or into the East Coast. As of September 3, 2017: Into NC or the Mid Atlantic, with ensembles into Florida to NE, strong cat 4 or 5. Strong Major hurricane, likely 3 to 5 into Savannah.
  • UKMET - Tropical storm to Strong 960mb hurricane over entire first run. As of September 3, 2017: South and right north of the Antilles, as a strong cat 4 or 5. Hits Hilton Head as cat 4 or 5.
  • HWRF - Developed the storm into a Cat 3 crossing the Atlantic. As of September 3, 2017: Just north of the Antilles as a cat 4. Sep 6: Went up offshore into South Carolina as a cat 2 to 4.
  • HMON - Developed the storm into a Cat 4 crossing the Atlantic. As of September 3, 2017: Further north than overall guidance, strong cat 4 or 5. Sep 6: Went into Miami, up spine of Florida as a 2 or 3 after a hit as a 5.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Is the weather really that bad in Atlana today that my company's office there needs to close today? I mean, they want us to come to work in Raleigh one day after a snow storm.
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Still a lot of power out, trees down, roads blocked so I would say depending on where they are at yes. I have a friend who's stuck in his neighborhood due to trees and power lines blocking them in. Seems to be a common theme for parts of the metro that got hit hardest.


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