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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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from Ryan Maue on twitter. "Eastern Gulf of Mexico ocean temperatures (SST) are bath water just like Straits of Florida. Some vertical shear won't overcome this fuel."

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If I were in Tampa right now, I'd be worried.
 
While it's slow, just wanted to say thanks for the info from someone who has been lurking around some of you guys since several years ago on another board. Always a lot of good info and I've learned a ton, even though I still feel clueless a lot of the time. I'll be happy to throw you guys a few bucks soon. Y'all are great.

Back to lurking. Thanks again.

Edit: Done...donated
 
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dang, a little more time over water like that....also makes us folks inland have even more issues with wind and water as well.
 
Sure wish I didn't have to close on my house and move during this! Didn't calculate this in the time crunch and not sure what to expect. Yikes!!
 
Cuba is definitely affecting Irma. From what I've seen from latest recon 120 what the highest wind recorded. The bad thing is it's gonna have a lot more time to regenerate with the western track.
 
This track is almost as bad as the orginal east coast track the GFS had as far as population and even worse for surge. Yes Miami-Lauderdale have arounf 6 million but Tampa has over 3 and then Fort myers has 3/4 of a million, Naples half a million and so on... Problem is there is quite a bit of experience with strong storms hitting SE Fl, no so much with Tampa so we are not sure what the impacts will be like of a strong cat 3 or weak cat 4 storm (possibly even higher)
 
I see the 00z Euro went even further SW into Georgia . Hard NW turn has been showing up for days . Looks like we are headed that way
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