Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[pcbjr]

I would think that a realistic speed would be between cat 1 and 2 strength. (75 to 100 mph)

more in line with current thinking from this end ... with all these trees ... not good

 

[ForsythSnow]

Seeing Irma head into Cuba on the HMON seems a bit weird. She takes a plunge right into the island which doesn't seem right. Have to watch the movement. For now, Irma is moving west.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

What happens next?

Waiting on next data set to come in

 

[pcbjr]

Seeing Irma head into Cuba on the HMON seems a bit weird. She takes a plunge right into the island which doesn't seem right. Have to watch the movement. For now, Irma is moving west.

Not directed at you, FS, but rather to your post - a well educated statement on why not to hang on to what a model says and base life on it ....

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Come into Valdosta then Columbus GA then moves over east al along and west of hwy 431

If correct eye almost goes right over MBY LoL

If Spann saw jaw probably dropped little LoL

 

[ForsythSnow]

Not directed at you, FS, but rather to your post - a well educated statement on why not to hang on to what a model says and base life on it ....

Lol yep. Definitely a true statement. Maybe I will learn come winter .

 

[ForsythSnow]

For us here in GA, here is what is currently expected rainfall wise.

 

[MBell]

For us here in GA, here is what is currently expected rainfall wise.

That makes more sense the the one they had earlier today.


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[pcbjr]

FWIW ...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

Provides some idea of continued uncertainty, even at this late hour ...

 

[WeatherLC]

How favorable is the eastern gulf for development?

 

[Xtreme Weather]

SST around 30 cel. Bath water if IF this track happened land interaction probably hinder a little bit

 

[pcbjr]

How favorable is the eastern gulf for development?

Development (as in new) or strengthening (as in Irma)?

 

[WeatherLC]

Development (as in new) or strengthening (as in Irma)?

Irma


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[accu35]

 

[pcbjr]

Irma


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It is a bathtub and no real shear ... if she gets out there a bit and if she avoids Cuba beforehand, someone will be writing a thesis on cosmic strength ... in other words, if she gets into the Gulf and takes a pause and a gulp before, I would not want to be in the Big Bend to Tall ... or any points north or west for a few 100 miles ...

 

[Xtreme Weather]

How favorable is the eastern gulf for development?

This is the area where the infamous Charley underwent insane strengthening back 2004

 

[accu35]

 

[BHS1975]

This is the area where the infamous Charley underwent insane strengthening back 2004

Yeah but Charlie was way smaller.


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[dsaur]

all Hades lets loose ...

in all seriousness, if she is that far west and dings the Big Bend, SW GA and central AL have an issue ...

All those folks are still in play. It worries me to have a potential Cat 5 with so much indecision showing, lol. It won't take much more westward drift to put it in the bath tub, then who knows. All I know is I'd rather ride it out in a frame house, than in my car on some side road in the country. There will be a lot of life and death decisions made before this drama is done.

 

[pcbjr]

All those folks are still in play. It worries me to have a potential Cat 5 with so much indecision showing, lol. It won't take much more westward drift to put it in the bath tub, then who knows. All I know is I'd rather ride it out in a frame house, than in my car on some side road in the country. The will be a lot of life and death decisions made before this drama is done.

Tony, unfortunately, some stupid decisions have been made by some ...