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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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NAM appears to be a little more NE of the 18z at 39hrs. Not that it means a hill of beans b/c it's the NAM.


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Storm5 said:
Haha yep, I fully expected a shift back east sometime over the next 24 hours . The wobbles will continue

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I'm sure it will play out as follows :
0Z : GFS east 50 miles, UKMET west a little, Euro west a little more too, HMON and HWRF east a bit, CMC jumps 100 miles east
6Z : GFS west 25 miles, UKMET east a hair, HMON and HWRF west a hair
12Z: GFS east half of 0Z, UKMET west a hair, Euro a little east, HMON and HWRF east, CMC in the Gulf
18Z: GFS up Central Florida, UKMET same, HMON and HWRF same

And we can all assume the NAM will flip each run sequentially. In reality, I believe we have our path to 50 miles.
 
Heading due North
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Big changes on the NAM at h5. Atlantic ridge is shoved east and the trough over the mid atlantic is lagging

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12KM NAM shows this off greatly. Not sure if NAM is good at 5h in this scenario.. aside from horrible hurricane forecasts (usually), 5H is what dictates the path.. so can't be ignored.. especially showing the ridge/trough changes.
 
NAM maybe sniffing something out which I hope it is for FL sake otherwise it's about to get rearranged.


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Yeah, NAM 00z is a massive change at H5.. and it makes sense the hurricane would be East in this situation. Interesting..
 
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