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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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12z GEFS supports the OP
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Notable west shift of every 12Z model so far. Next up of major models: the King. Not feeling as good as last night for this area. Best hope for GA to avoid widespread devastation as of now may be that Irma weaken considerably before potentially getting here due to expected increased wind shear and land interaction prior to its possible arrival in this area.
 
GaWx said:
Notable west shift of every 12Z model so far. Next up of major models: the King. Not feeling as good as last night for this area. Best hope for GA to avoid widespread devastation as of now may be that Irma weaken considerably before potentially getting here due to expected increased wind shear and land interaction prior to its possible arrival in this area.
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Yep. I am afraid that OTS is about 0.1 % at this point in my opinion. I could be wrong, but I think a Miami landfall or close to one will happen followed by a GA to Charleston landfall as a strong hurricane degrading to a strong TS in N GA or upstate SC.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yep. I am afraid that OTS is about 0.1 % at this point in my opinion. I could be wrong, but I think a Miami landfall or close to one will happen followed by a GA to Charleston landfall as a strong hurricane degrading to a strong TS in N GA or upstate SC.
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I'm quite hopeful that interaction with S FL along with more unfavorable upper air conditions will weaken Irma significantly, A cat 1 hit from offshore, while still bad, would be sooo much less damaging than, say a cat 3 hit. Furthermore, as one can see in the 12Z GEFS tracks above, a good number run just inland in NE FL and hardly even come back over water.
 
Why does it keep bringing it into Cuba with the big gap in the ridge?


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As far as track is concerned 12z EURO today out to hr. 48 is matching the 12z run from yesterday to a tee.
 
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