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Tropical Major Hurricane Iota

Not to downplay the intensity at landfall, which is looking quite scary right now; but, regardless of what it turns out to be, the big story by far will almost certainly turn out to be the flooding rains because this area is normally so susceptible and now this is coming less than 2 weeks after the terrible Eta. Here is the 18Z Euro 3 day rainfall ending at hour 90. It is bad enough as this shows, but it is probably a bit underdone for the heaviest rain/mountains plus there will likely be still more rain soon afterward. Prayers are needed as regards getting the flood and mudslide vulnerable successfully evacuated to safety, which is complicated by COVID:

2Wc4M6a.png
 
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Thanksgiving is next week and look at this insane

URNT12 KNHC 160540
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL312020
A. 16/05:08:30Z
B. 13.46 deg N 080.56 deg W
C. 700 mb 2618 m
D. 945 mb
E. 230 deg 4 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C16
H. 100 kt
I. 033 deg 8 nm 05:06:00Z
J. 119 deg 122 kt
K. 033 deg 8 nm 05:06:00Z
L. 112 kt
M. 221 deg 8 nm 05:11:00Z
N. 303 deg 110 kt
O. 222 deg 9 nm 05:11:30Z
P. 10 C / 3051 m
Q. 18 C / 3050 m
R. 3 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF304 0531A IOTA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 122 KT 033 / 8 NM 05:06:00Z
SW EYEWALL INTENSE LIGHTNING AND HAIL
;
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO
A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-
THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 80.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
 
Madness another rapidly intensifying hurricane for 2020

The greek names now have double the majors that the regular names had lol

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA HAS RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENED INTO A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that Iota
now has maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (225 km/h) with higher
gusts. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 935 mb (27.61
inches). The updated intensity will be reflected in the next
advisory which will be issued by 400 AM EST.
 
10:00 AM EST Mon Nov 16
Location: 13.5°N 82.0°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 917 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph
 
This one (and zeta) will have cleanup efforts ongoing into next year. Rescues through thanksgiving. Consider volunteering through Samaritans purse or a local church. Get the word out as it won’t gain much attention with it missing the United States.
 
Guys, I'm bad at Central America geography. How close is this one going to make landfall to last week's (2 week's??) central america cane?
 
NWTENN said:
Guys, I'm bad at Central America geography. How close is this one going to make landfall to last week's (2 week's??) central america cane?
Click to expand...
Down to 10s of miles from what I can tell. Essentially looks just slightly north of the last landfall. High chance the same areas will be hit again. In addition the nhc expects further intensification up to landfall. Expecting 165.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Down to 10s of miles from what I can tell. Essentially looks just slightly north of the last landfall. High chance the same areas will be hit again. In addition the nhc expects further intensification up to landfall. Expecting 165.
Click to expand...

165 not happening due to ERC


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
snowlover91 said:
Nah it’s definitely an EWRC. Signs of it all day like RH increasing in the eye and a double wind maxima showing up on recon passes too.
View attachment 52403
Click to expand...
Looking at the chart alone isn't telling. Look at recon's path and it'll become more and more evident. In addition they're close to the coast so recon data becomes skewed slightly and wind interaction with land will also weaken the storm. Pressure is steady too. ERC's up the pressure slowly but noticeably, not 1 or 2 mbs. With a storm this strong an ERC would mean the pressure would be in the 930s.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Looking at the chart alone isn't telling. Look at recon's path and it'll become more and more evident. In addition they're close to the coast so recon data becomes skewed slightly and wind interaction with land will also weaken the storm. Pressure is steady too. ERC's up the pressure slowly but noticeably, not 1 or 2 mbs. With a storm this strong an ERC would mean the pressure would be in the 930s.
Click to expand...

There are multiple indicators for an EWRC. One of the early signs documented is rising RH in the eye which recon has confirmed throughout the day. The double wind max evident at flight level is another early sign of it and decreasing winds also point to it even though pressure has remained steady. Mets on Twitter have also mentioned an EWRC is ongoing including our own @Webberweather53. It looks to me like this went through a very efficient EWRC (merger) rather than the really delayed and drawn out ones we are used to seeing or ran possibly ran into land before it could finish, it’s tough to tell since we don’t have radar to go by.





 
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snowlover91 said:
There are multiple indicators for an EWRC. One of the early signs documented is rising RH in the eye which recon has confirmed throughout the day. The double wind max evident at flight level is another early sign of it and decreasing winds also point to it even though pressure has remained steady. Mets on Twitter have also mentioned an EWRC is ongoing including our own @Webberweather53. It looks to me like this went through a very efficient EWRC (merger) rather than the really delayed and drawn out ones we are used to seeing or ran possibly ran into land before it could finish, it’s tough to tell since we don’t have radar to go by.





Click to expand...

Seems to be a lot different of an ERC than what we normally see then.
 
Crazy

Category 4 Hurricane Iota, with sustained winds near 155 mph (250
km/h), made landfall along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near
the town of Haulover, or about 30 miles (45 km) south of Puerto
Cabezas, at 1040 PM EST...0340 UTC...this Monday evening.

Hurricane Iota's landfall location is approximately 15 miles (25
km) south of where Category 4 Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier
this month on November 3rd.
 
Odd Louisiana and Nicaragua both having landfalls so close together. It’s like the pattern is stale and not changing.
 
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