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Tropical Major Hurricane Iota

GaWx

GaWx

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Invest 98L, now in the E Caribbean, has been designated. Unfortunately, with it headed toward some of the highest OHC in the world, the W Caribbean, this is liable to end up another very strong hurricane. Even more unfortunately, models are strongly hinting that this could early next week be another hit on Central America, which is still only in its early recovery phase from Eta.
 
12Z King: It shows it as Eta part 2 for Central America and this is only 138 hours out! Keep in mind that it is the heavy rainfall, not the winds, that is the biggest danger by far down there. So, even just a slow moving TS could be horrible for them. They're still only in their early recovery phase for Eta! :eek: :eek:

jzGcfDV.png
 
The 12Z Euro then takes 98L SW all the way through Nicaragua and into the E Pac, where it keeps moving SW! I'm guessing this SW movement all the way well out into the Epac is overdone similarly to how much it overdid it with Eta at this forecast stage. But who knows? Regardless, look at how much rainfall it puts out over Central America, especially over Nicaragua (12-24" over a substantial part of the country), far W Honduras/far E Guatemala (8-12" over an area that just had historic flooding from Eta that was in some cases even worse than Mitch), and a large portion of N Honduras (8-12"): :eek: :eek:

liNOGzf.png
 
12Z UKMET is stronger this run and now has it down to 990 mb and getting stronger (implying a hurricane) while moving WNW toward Cent America. In comparison to how weak it had Eta at this stage, that's scary: :eek: :eek:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.2N 76.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.11.2020 108 12.9N 76.6W 1005 32
1200UTC 15.11.2020 120 12.9N 77.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 16.11.2020 132 13.4N 78.7W 998 40
1200UTC 16.11.2020 144 14.2N 80.2W 990 48
 
1. 12Z EPS: a hair north of 0Z/6Z but similar to 18Z: keep in mind left bias of EPS mean

ozH9Fro.png


2. 12z UKMET: Honduras/Nicaragua border area bound and then moves SW but UKMET has a left bias like what it had with Eta:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.3N 79.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.11.2020 72 13.3N 79.2W 1005 29
0000UTC 16.11.2020 84 14.0N 80.4W 1003 32
1200UTC 16.11.2020 96 14.1N 81.8W 1000 35
0000UTC 17.11.2020 108 15.0N 82.7W 995 44
1200UTC 17.11.2020 120 15.5N 83.7W 993 47
0000UTC 18.11.2020 132 15.6N 84.6W 993 46
1200UTC 18.11.2020 144 15.1N 85.1W 997 43
 
12z JMA: similar to 12Z UKMET, Euro, Icon, and GFS goes SW well inland into Honduras/Nicaragua:

0s1HLD7.png


Then like the Euro it keeps going SW well into the E Pac. I think the JMA has a left bias fwiw:

TlxHKLQ.png
 
GaWx said:
1. 12Z EPS: a hair north of 0Z/6Z but similar to 18Z: keep in mind left bias of EPS mean

ozH9Fro.png


2. 12z UKMET: Honduras/Nicaragua border area bound and then moves SW but UKMET has a left bias like what it had with Eta:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.3N 79.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.11.2020 72 13.3N 79.2W 1005 29
0000UTC 16.11.2020 84 14.0N 80.4W 1003 32
1200UTC 16.11.2020 96 14.1N 81.8W 1000 35
0000UTC 17.11.2020 108 15.0N 82.7W 995 44
1200UTC 17.11.2020 120 15.5N 83.7W 993 47
0000UTC 18.11.2020 132 15.6N 84.6W 993 46
1200UTC 18.11.2020 144 15.1N 85.1W 997 43
Click to expand...
The HWRF and HMON both have ticked N as well with the HWRF being very close to the Gulf at the end.
 
Brent said:
Yeah the HWRF HMON raise eyebrows about a possible threat beyond Central America for sure
Click to expand...

Brent, remember when you said you were tired of hurricanes, like, what...almost a month ago!? The hurricanes got mad at Brent for saying that and thus decided to become even more frequent! How many hurricanes have we had since you said that, like a dozen? This is your fault lol.

I found it with an easy search:

"I'm tired of hurricanes lol"

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/2020-banter-thread.668/page-173#post-328562

It's definitely a curse and I'm not even superstitious!
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
Brent, remember when you said you were tired of hurricanes, like, what...almost a month ago!? The hurricanes got mad at Brent for saying that and thus decided to become even more frequent! How many hurricanes have we had since you said that, like a dozen? This is your fault lol.

I found it with an easy search:

"I'm tired of hurricanes lol"

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/2020-banter-thread.668/page-173#post-328562

It's definitely a curse and I'm not even superstitious!
Click to expand...

If Iota becomes a major we'll have more majors this month than August and September had lmao

Maybe I should try this with "winter"
 
The Happy Hour King and his ensembles say the HWRF and HMON are on crack:

vuhWSdB.png


VTguyBv.png
 
Brent said:
If Iota becomes a major we'll have more majors this month than August and September had lmao

Maybe I should try this with "winter"
Click to expand...

I was just thinking if this became a major we might have more ACE in Oct and November than in August & September.
 
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