Henry2326
Member
What the heck is the UK and Icon seeing that's driving them to the same area o8n the east coast????and get boxed in....
Its these 2 against the world at this point.
Its these 2 against the world at this point.
They were both not right recently, but it was a totally different setup. The GFS and Euro agreeing makes me think that the UK and ICON are both off.What the heck is the UK and Icon seeing that's driving them to the same area o8n the east coast????and get boxed in....
Its these 2 against the world at this point.
They were both not right recently, but it was a totally different setup. The GFS and Euro agreeing makes me think that the UK and ICON are both off.
The icon separates the system from the ull to its west, the gfs keeps them in close proximity and doesn't really develop an individual identity for 95l. This keeps the vorticity strung out and moving wnw embedded in the flow around the ull and on the southern edge of the closed 700 and 850mb troughs to it's north. The slower the organization in this case the farther SW the system ends up. If this thing really goes to town over the next 24-36 hours and separates from the ull then you may likely see the models jump NEWhat the heck is the UK and Icon seeing that's driving them to the same area o8n the east coast????and get boxed in....
Its these 2 against the world at this point.
The icon separates the system from the ull to its west, the gfs keeps them in close proximity and doesn't really develop an individual identity for 95l. This keeps the vorticity strung out and moving wnw embedded in the flow around the ull and on the southern edge of the closed 700 and 850mb troughs to it's north. The slower the organization in this case the farther SW the system ends up. If this thing really goes to town over the next 24-36 hours and separates from the ull then you may likely see the models jump NE
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The wave itself is warm core. It's interacting with a ull/tutt but they are 2 independent entitiesIt’s not gonna have much time to transition from cold core to warm core.
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The icon separates the system from the ull to its west, the gfs keeps them in close proximity and doesn't really develop an individual identity for 95l. This keeps the vorticity strung out and moving wnw embedded in the flow around the ull and on the southern edge of the closed 700 and 850mb troughs to it's north. The slower the organization in this case the farther SW the system ends up. If this thing really goes to town over the next 24-36 hours and separates from the ull then you may likely see the models jump NE
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Thank you....very helpful.The icon separates the system from the ull to its west, the gfs keeps them in close proximity and doesn't really develop an individual identity for 95l. This keeps the vorticity strung out and moving wnw embedded in the flow around the ull and on the southern edge of the closed 700 and 850mb troughs to it's north. The slower the organization in this case the farther SW the system ends up. If this thing really goes to town over the next 24-36 hours and separates from the ull then you may likely see the models jump NE
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They've bought into the GFS/Euro solution as SD explained....Code RED
Btw their cone mostly goes into the Gulf
View attachment 23405
Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred
miles are associated with a sharp trough of low pressure. Although
limited development of this system is anticipated tonight and
Thursday, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive
for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits and southeastern Florida,
and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Do not trust a cone until there is a system; once there is a system, trust the cone with a degree of doubt past 3 days at most, with the reasonable expectation the cone will adjust ... likely N or NE in most instances (not all, mind you) ...Code RED
Btw their cone mostly goes into the Gulf
View attachment 23405
Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred
miles are associated with a sharp trough of low pressure. Although
limited development of this system is anticipated tonight and
Thursday, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive
for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits and southeastern Florida,
and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
My yard has realized it.
I wonder if it track west or NW like Ukmet bring SC rain?
Possibly more than rain is the issue....icon began ramping it up this afternoon in that same spot. UK warned.I wonder if it track west or NW like Ukmet bring SC rain?
Tomorrow we are T-2....that worked ok for Dorian....but geez, it cuts it close.Do not trust a cone until there is a system; once there is a system, trust the cone with a degree of doubt past 3 days at most, with the reasonable expectation the cone will adjust ... likely N or NE in most instances (not all, mind you) ...