• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

12Z Euro ens: it also has trended EAST since 0Z run. Many members go up FL peninsula. Some in Gulf but also a couple E of FL, too. Many then go into GA, AL, or SC. I saw at least one stay offshore in the Atlantic.
 
Last edited:
Convection of it is looking pretty healthy right now and you can see a broad rotation. Could possibly see a TD maybe as soon as tomorrow if convection keeps firing?

It also seems to be pushing NE.
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro ens: it also has trended EAST since 0Z run. Many members go up FL peninsula. Some in Gulf but also a couple E of FL, too. Many then go into GA, AL, or SC. I saw at least one stay offshore in the Atlantic.
Click to expand...

Further to the above: whereas the 0Z Euro members were almost all moving WNW and at or south of Lake Okeechobee to the S tip, the 12Z run has most members moving between Lake O on the south and Gainesville on the north, with many going near Orlando. Also, these 12Z members are moving mainly NW rather than the WNW of the 0Z. So, quite a north shift.
 
Last edited:
ForsythSnow said:
Middle path please lol. If it goes to the right I'm not going to be very happy. I'll call the UK biases and take the Euro. We need rain here ASAP. Some trees are wilting.
Click to expand...

Didn't realize how dry it's actually been in the SE.

90dPDeptSERCC.png
 
GaWx said:
Further to the above: whereas the 0Z Euro members were almost all moving WNW and at or south of Lake Okeechobee to the S tip, the 12Z run has most members moving between Lake O on the south and Gainesville on the north, with many going near Orlando. Also, these 12Z members are moving mainly NW rather than the WNW of the 0Z. So, quite a north shift.
Click to expand...
STOP IT ...
 
ForsythSnow said:
At least this would be a low end TS at best, so it's not like we are talking a full fledged hurricane. We need the rain up here badly, and this is the only thing that could give us a ton of needed rain.
Click to expand...
FS,
You know I'm always pulling for you to get the Lake filled!
Just don't pull for stuff to form and get fierce ... so here's hoping good for the both of us!
Best!
Phil
 
18Z ICON slightly east of its 12Z run a little further off the E coast of FL.
 
What the heck is the UK and Icon seeing that's driving them to the same area o8n the east coast????and get boxed in....

Its these 2 against the world at this point.
 
Henry2326 said:
What the heck is the UK and Icon seeing that's driving them to the same area o8n the east coast????and get boxed in....

Its these 2 against the world at this point.
Click to expand...
They were both not right recently, but it was a totally different setup. The GFS and Euro agreeing makes me think that the UK and ICON are both off.
 
ForsythSnow said:
They were both not right recently, but it was a totally different setup. The GFS and Euro agreeing makes me think that the UK and ICON are both off.
Click to expand...

Except that the trend of just about all models is to the right, including the 12Z Euro/EPS and they may not have finished trending that way since they be playing catch up to reality as per what Levi tweeted.
 
Henry2326 said:
What the heck is the UK and Icon seeing that's driving them to the same area o8n the east coast????and get boxed in....

Its these 2 against the world at this point.
Click to expand...
The icon separates the system from the ull to its west, the gfs keeps them in close proximity and doesn't really develop an individual identity for 95l. This keeps the vorticity strung out and moving wnw embedded in the flow around the ull and on the southern edge of the closed 700 and 850mb troughs to it's north. The slower the organization in this case the farther SW the system ends up. If this thing really goes to town over the next 24-36 hours and separates from the ull then you may likely see the models jump NE

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
The icon separates the system from the ull to its west, the gfs keeps them in close proximity and doesn't really develop an individual identity for 95l. This keeps the vorticity strung out and moving wnw embedded in the flow around the ull and on the southern edge of the closed 700 and 850mb troughs to it's north. The slower the organization in this case the farther SW the system ends up. If this thing really goes to town over the next 24-36 hours and separates from the ull then you may likely see the models jump NE

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

It’s not gonna have much time to transition from cold core to warm core.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
The icon separates the system from the ull to its west, the gfs keeps them in close proximity and doesn't really develop an individual identity for 95l. This keeps the vorticity strung out and moving wnw embedded in the flow around the ull and on the southern edge of the closed 700 and 850mb troughs to it's north. The slower the organization in this case the farther SW the system ends up. If this thing really goes to town over the next 24-36 hours and separates from the ull then you may likely see the models jump NE

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Icon and Ukie took me from a "meh" to a "oh really now"..........at least for me personally a storm east of Florida has a much better chance of impacting my weather than one crossing FL into the GOM....time will tell which camp has it right.....
 
Code RED

Btw their cone mostly goes into the Gulf

two_atl_5d0.png
Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred
miles are associated with a sharp trough of low pressure. Although
limited development of this system is anticipated tonight and
Thursday, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive
for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits and southeastern Florida,
and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
SD said:
The icon separates the system from the ull to its west, the gfs keeps them in close proximity and doesn't really develop an individual identity for 95l. This keeps the vorticity strung out and moving wnw embedded in the flow around the ull and on the southern edge of the closed 700 and 850mb troughs to it's north. The slower the organization in this case the farther SW the system ends up. If this thing really goes to town over the next 24-36 hours and separates from the ull then you may likely see the models jump NE

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Thank you....very helpful. :)
 
Brent said:
Code RED

Btw their cone mostly goes into the Gulf

View attachment 23405
Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred
miles are associated with a sharp trough of low pressure. Although
limited development of this system is anticipated tonight and
Thursday, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive
for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits and southeastern Florida,
and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Click to expand...
They've bought into the GFS/Euro solution as SD explained....
 
Brent said:
Code RED

Btw their cone mostly goes into the Gulf

View attachment 23405
Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred
miles are associated with a sharp trough of low pressure. Although
limited development of this system is anticipated tonight and
Thursday, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive
for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits and southeastern Florida,
and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Click to expand...
Do not trust a cone until there is a system; once there is a system, trust the cone with a degree of doubt past 3 days at most, with the reasonable expectation the cone will adjust ... likely N or NE in most instances (not all, mind you) ...
 
pcbjr said:
Do not trust a cone until there is a system; once there is a system, trust the cone with a degree of doubt past 3 days at most, with the reasonable expectation the cone will adjust ... likely N or NE in most instances (not all, mind you) ...
Click to expand...
Tomorrow we are T-2....that worked ok for Dorian....but geez, it cuts it close.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top