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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

Wouldn’t it be something if it came back and we all thought it was gonna hit...and it came within 50 miles only to miss again...
 
Good news is that the 18Z Euro is well east of that 12Z fun that was well west of the prior runs and was associated with the EPS run with ~13 US hits. I bet this will mean fewer US hits on the 18Z EPS.
 
GaWx said:
Good news is that the 18Z Euro is well east of that 12Z fun that was well west of the prior runs and was associated with the EPS run with ~13 US hits. I bet this will mean fewer US hits on the 18Z EPS.
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Majority safely ots but still throwing some our way too

678b41d55e053115e7cc113ab55e9418.jpg


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metwannabe said:
Majority safely ots but still throwing some our way too

678b41d55e053115e7cc113ab55e9418.jpg


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
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Yeah a couple still to keep an eye on but the OP runs are unwavering so far. We are not seeing any windshield wiping at all. I think we all know what's gonna happen theres just enough members of the euro ens to keep the fat lady from fully singing......times up soon though and if any wholesale changes are gonna happen it needs to happen soon......it isnt though.
 
IF this eventually misses like the models all suggest that will be 2 canes that got past 75W that end up missing or at least not landfalling on the mainland.
 
metwannabe said:
Majority safely ots but still throwing some our way too

678b41d55e053115e7cc113ab55e9418.jpg


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah, I was wrong with my prediction of fewer US hits on the 18Z EPS vs the 12Z. It actually had the same # of hits, 13 (25%).
 
If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? Likewise if a hurricane...well, you get it
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, I was wrong with my prediction of fewer US hits on the 18Z EPS vs the 12Z. It actually had the same # of hits, 13 (25%).
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Not that i expect any surprises but any time these storms slow way down like this I get suspicious and they can sometimes get new modeling ideas. We saw this with florence and Dorian where models changed after they picked up on a slowdown.

Although outside the expected as humberto moves slowly there is a limited window for something to change like the trough moving out faster etc.....I'm not saying it will just slow movers can sometimes see last minute changes to overall pattern thinking.
 
Like the 18Z Euro, the 0Z run is well E of the 12Z. Let’s see if this correlates to fewer 0Z EPS members hitting the US unlike the 18Z EPS.
 
GaWx said:
Like the 18Z Euro, the 0Z run is well E of the 12Z. Let’s see if this correlates to fewer 0Z EPS members hitting the US unlike the 18Z EPS.
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I only saw 1, maybe 2, either way he's heading ots and I think we can say farewell to Humberto
 
metwannabe said:
I only saw 1, maybe 2, either way he's heading ots and I think we can say farewell to Humberto
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There’s one other that loops forever and comes in ridiculously late, which is not believable. So, technically I counted 3. Even that is way less than the 13 (25%) of the prior two runs. I agree that this, along with recent acceleration ENE, is highly encouraging that he’s going to go and stay OTS. Also, as I’ve noted, the looping scenarios that show up as alternatives to the consensus of OTS based on my recollection usually end up not happening though every storm is unique and they can’t be totally discounted at least at first.
 
The 6Z Euro suite is consistent with the idea of the US being safe. The 6Z EPS, like the 0Z, has only a measly 3 of 51 members (6%) with a US hit (2 in SE and 1 in NE). This compares to the 13 hits on the 18Z and 12Z of yesterday.
Assuming no more surprises, this may very well be my last model related post on this storm as regards US threats though I may post about how models look for Bermuda later.
 
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GaWx said:
The 6Z Euro suite is consistent with the idea of the US being safe. The 6Z EPS, like the 0Z, has only a measly 3 of 51 members (6%) with a US hit (2 in SE and 1 in NE). This compares to the 13 hits on the 18Z and 12Z of yesterday.
Assuming no more surprises, this may very well be my last model related post on this storm as regards US threats though I may post about how models look for Bermuda later.
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Really clearing out a eye seems like we might see some decent strengthening today......
 
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