Dorian made landfall in NC and many other areas before and after. And this one could hit Bermuda and already impacting the Bahamas. Plus wouldn’t rule out Canada again. Heck, the state of Maine had Tropical Storm warnings from Dorian.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto
- Thread starter GeorgiaGirl
- Start date
We’re now into the expected near stall period, which will probably continue into the evening. So, he’s pretty much doing as planned. By tonight, we should see some eastward component of motion. Only if we don’t see any by dawn tomorrow would I start getting a bit worried something’s off.
12Z Euro 48 is only slightly W of the 3 previous runs. Should still be an easy miss for the US.
Edit: Interesting north movement at hour 120 after raking Bermuda with its right side. A little like the 12Z CMC. Will still miss the US easily.
Edit #2: And now mainly for entertainment: the 12Z Crazy Uncle (CMC) ensembles just like the 0Z run hits the CONUS (FL-NC) with ~10 of the ~21 members. But note that this is quite the inferior ensemble to the GEFS and especially to the EPS. So, there's no reason to buy into its suggestion of "not so fast" with regard to the US. It is doing so because it has an unrealistically stronger ridge to the north vs the GEFS and EPS.
Edit: Interesting north movement at hour 120 after raking Bermuda with its right side. A little like the 12Z CMC. Will still miss the US easily.
Edit #2: And now mainly for entertainment: the 12Z Crazy Uncle (CMC) ensembles just like the 0Z run hits the CONUS (FL-NC) with ~10 of the ~21 members. But note that this is quite the inferior ensemble to the GEFS and especially to the EPS. So, there's no reason to buy into its suggestion of "not so fast" with regard to the US. It is doing so because it has an unrealistically stronger ridge to the north vs the GEFS and EPS.
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Here we go again. The 12Z Euro ens is back to having more members than the 6Z, which had only 4, threaten or hit the US after stalling. More details from me or whomever as the run goes further. It definitely will have quite a few more hits. Are these just model cartoons (thnks, @GeorgiaGirl for that term) or are these realistic alternative scenarios?
Cadi40
Member
We can’t rule anything out at this moment, we all learned from Dorian that even the slightest mistakes in time and location can have very large implications. However, I will admit models have handled Humberto quite well.
pcbjr
Member
Larry,
Personally have had that worried notion all season ...
Hopefully, you're not psychic!
The 12Z Euro ens has ~13 US hits including one skim (~25%) which is almost double the 7 of the 0Z ens and more than triple the 4 of the 6Z. The highest of any Euro ens run so far has been the 12Z of yesterday's ~16 members. So, this 13 isn't far from that.
pcbjr
Member
if you add an "chotic" at the end, you'd get 110 "Likes" ...
Grasping at straws here looking for anything to go wrong. Just relax sheesh.
I'm just messengering what the highest rated ensemble (Euro) says. Also, even when you include the latest GEFS and GEPS, you can plainly see that any member that doesn't reach 70W and especially ones that don't reach 72W by late Wed. is at risk of coming all the way back to the US due to an uncommonly strong and upper ridge over the E US that all models have persistering through Saturday. It is still a low probability since no major operational does it, but not one to ignore just yet, especially with what the 12Z Euro ens just showed.
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Another comment like that will get you a timeout, nothing wrong with anyone discussing the weather and especially someone who is providing accurate and beneficial information, which by the way it is just that... information.
pcbjr
Member
Really is quite the spread at D6, hopefully the eps isn't firing a warning shot but stalling systems are fickle to say the least
pcbjr
Member
Just hopin' it's .22 ratshot and not 00 buckshot ...
I know it isn't a good model at all, but just to illustrate the above, the 0Z/12Z NAVGEM don't get to 72W by Wed evening and they then both come back to threaten NC. In contrast, the 6Z gets almost to 70W and doesn't come back.
Edit: The 12Z Euro just gets to 70W and even it later takes an abrupt turn to the north. All of the recent GFS and ICONS move past 70W by late Wed and none of them come back at all.
Edit: The 12Z Euro just gets to 70W and even it later takes an abrupt turn to the north. All of the recent GFS and ICONS move past 70W by late Wed and none of them come back at all.
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Is it bad that I’m hoping for a cane ? Went to high rock lake and there was a few dead crappie at the bank and low water levels, rain is really needed here
I'm 99% sure on the ots solution, haven't even really been paying too much attention but another look at the eps and is just enough to say keep one eye open...
I would say the stronger members take it out to sea and based off satellite this storm is intensifying fast. Their is nothing to hinder strengthening.