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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

Shaggy said:
Models are all over the place from the weak sheared out mess of the gfs camp to the stronger ukie and euro miss off the east coast threat. We wont know much more until A) we have a real center to track and B) G4 missions start sampling some areas around the storm and that gets ingested into the models.
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I was about to post this same thing. There are too many moving parts at the moment with the system and the near by environment then in the future across the US and north Atlantic to say the euro or gfs solutions are correct. The 12z cmc and nhc forecast really split the difference and at the moment are the way to go

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Amazingly when you consider how strong some of the UKMET and Euro runs have been, the GEFS has still not had a single member of any run of its 21 members with a surface low any stronger than 1003 mb! The GFS suite is either going to score a major victory or a major fail. Levi thinks it will fail but to not to discount the chance this never amounts to much out of respect for the GFS being a good tropical model as he put it.
 
GaWx said:
Amazingly when you consider how strong some of the UKMET and Euro runs have been, the GEFS has still not had a single member of any run of its 21 members with a surface low any stronger than 1003 mb! The GFS suite is either going to score a major victory or a major fail. Levi thinks it will fail but to not to discount the chance this never amounts to much out of respect for the GFS being a good tropical model as he put it.
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Yeah he pretty much also said that it's really a hard forecast beyond 4 or 5 days. His video definitely describes the situation well and I advise everyone have a look at it.
 
GaWx said:
Amazingly when you consider how strong some of the UKMET and Euro runs have been, the GEFS has still not had a single member of any run of its 21 members with a surface low any stronger than 1003 mb! The GFS suite is either going to score a major victory or a major fail. Levi thinks it will fail but to not to discount the chance this never amounts to much out of respect for the GFS being a good tropical model as he put it.
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And right after I posted that, wouldn't you know that the 18Z GEFS finally has a member stronger than 1003 mb: at day 6 it has one near 1000 mb 150 miles SE of SC moving very slowly NNW toward the NC/SC line before weakening.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah he pretty much also said that it's really a hard forecast beyond 4 or 5 days. His video definitely describes the situation well and I advise everyone have a look at it.
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Yeah, the 10 or so EPS members that stall either offshore or just onshore and then make a hard left due to the very strong ridge to the north makes it more difficult than usual for the day 4+ period. The good news is that that's only 20% or so of the members that do this. Also, based on my many years of following these kind of alternative options that show up for some storms due to blocking ridges, when there is strong model disagreement the hard left option usually doesn't end up happening and the storm instead gains more latitude albeit sometimes slowly. However, that's just the usual and every storm is different. Also, E US ridging has been exceeding expectations, if anything. So, if that were to verify, you'd need to give that 20% more weight.
 
GaWx said:
Amazingly when you consider how strong some of the UKMET and Euro runs have been, the GEFS has still not had a single member of any run of its 21 members with a surface low any stronger than 1003 mb! The GFS suite is either going to score a major victory or a major fail. Levi thinks it will fail but to not to discount the chance this never amounts to much out of respect for the GFS being a good tropical model as he put it.
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Yeah, this is typically when the GFS/FV3 scores a win historically. If this was showing a strong TS/weak hurricane crossing FL into the gulf, I would discount it. However, with them showing a weak wave despite both models tendency to over strengthen hurricanes is a red flag. It will probably cave like it does most of the time, but don’t completely discount it.

This storm really will have a domino effect to the storm that proceeds it.
 
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