Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

[KyloG]

This will keep the NE folks twitter happy for today

 

[ncskywarn]

Still in the right direction if not out to sea..was New Jersey...hopefully Canada this run but looks like New England....

Yep hello New England.
Edit: Or not North at 192 then OTS at 216 misses New England.

 

[KyloG]

Who you got. This is a 4day modelcast.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Both OTS. Good direction maybe it keep it up

 

[BirdManDoomW]

It will miss NYC looks like Eastern Long Island and North.

Yep going in the right direction. Both fishies but close to Canada yet again

 

[Brick Tamland]

This feels like Dorian on repeat.

 

[Stormsfury]

I expect more wild swings until we get a dominant circulation... If that happens..

I see hints of SSW winds actually South of Cuba on the Eastern side but Cuba's disrupting with some of the higher terrain. Lots and lots of stuff to iron out

 

[ForsythSnow]

Recon is on the way in by the way. The data may help some if they find anything.

 

[Shaggy]

I expect more wild swings until we get a dominant circulation... If that happens..

I see hints of SSW winds actually South of Cuba on the Eastern side but Cuba's disrupting with some of the higher terrain. Lots and lots of stuff to iron out

It seems that the best looking area if rotation is a bit NE of where the euro initialized it. That's gonna be a big step to getting more consensus on the models.

For me and you how far west it gets and when it takes that north motion is going to be crucial. If its deep in the west Atlantic and the east motion doesnt pan out as much then theres trouble brewing for the SE coast again.

Of course if it develops further east and stays east more then the recurve and NE threat goes way up.

 

[Henry2326]

72 hour Hot off the press....apparently split the baby....and not good if that should occur, based on the curve we are seeing.

 

[Henry2326]

48 hour...

 

[Stormsfury]

Close inspection of visible satellite loop. I am seeing some hints of westerly winds around 22.8N, 73.5W.

 

[GaWx]

12Z EPS early maps suggest there should be a lot of OTS members but with probably a nontrivial minority being possibly dangerous due to not being fully OTS. Looks a touch E of the 6Z and a touch W of the 0Z.

 

[Ethan80963!]

 

[GaWx]

12Z EPS early maps suggest there should be a lot of OTS members but with probably a nontrivial minority being possibly dangerous due to not being fully OTS. Looks a touch E of the 6Z and a touch W of the 0Z.

Confirmed: Good news. Many OTS but some hanging around and a couple coming back to shore so far.

 

[Henry2326]

72 hour Hot off the press....apparently split the baby....and not good if that should occur, based on the curve we are seeing.

View attachment 23488

I think the only operational model that looks like the surface maps is CMC....and it stalls in the frames after this point.

 

[GaWx]

Confirmed: Good news. Many OTS but some hanging around and a couple coming back to shore so far.

Final verdict on this run: most 12Z EPS OTS but ~25% problematic for the SE US (FL-NC) with ~2/3 of the 25% stopping and coming back west under the ridge into N FL/GA/SC. Some also threaten or even hit NE US.

 

[Henry2326]

Final verdict on this run: most 12Z EPS OTS but ~25% problematic for the SE US (FL-NC) with ~2/3 of the 25% stopping and coming back west under the ridge into N FL/GA/SC. Some also threaten or even hit NE US.

Maybe that's the reason for the placement on the surface map....
Edit- 12z spaghetti is all over this spot although it diverged at 18z.

 

[KyloG]

members for reference