Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[lexxnchloe]

Looks a little less organized to me. Doesnt have alot of time over water as it accelerates.

 

[Snowfan]

Latest dropsonde shows Cat 3 winds in the 942-889 mb level in the E Quad. Probably take a while to mix down.

 

[DustinWx]

Latest dropsonde shows Cat 3 winds in the 942-889 mb level. View attachment 151979

Meaning?

 

[Belle Lechat]

No hurricane force FL winds in NW quad

Recon shows that that Dvorak radii below is bad.

 

[DustinWx]

View attachment 151980

Recon shows that that Dvorak radii below isn't to be relied upon.

Help explain in layman’s terms

 

[Snowfan]

Meaning?

Sorry. I edited the post to help explain it better.

 

[weatherfide]

You are forgetting the northern wall, which will have significant punch.

Do you mean this "north" wall? It's deteriorating quickly at the same latitude as Atlanta and it's a good 50 miles east of the city, moving NE. The north wall doesn't even cross the eastern suburbs of Atlanta.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I would expect Atlanta to be on the very west edge of the NHC cone at 11 AM.

 

[Henry2326]

I would expect Atlanta to be on the very west edge of the NHC cone at 11 AM.

I hope you're right.....but that's a heck of a jump for the NHC.

 

[weatherfide]

I was in Carrollton for Opal and we had at least 70 mph winds. Many houses on my street had trees fall on them.

Opal's center went through Alabama. In this scenario, Augusta is going to be playing the role of Carrollton in Opal's Oppression.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

I would expect Atlanta to be on the very west edge of the NHC cone at 11 AM.

I wouldn’t. They are being stubborn

 

[Arcc]

Latest dropsonde shows Cat 3 winds in the 942-889 mb level in the E Quad. Probably take a while to mix down. View attachment 151979

Mid-Cat 3 strike most likely IMO.

 

[weatherfide]

No hurricane force FL winds in NW quad

She's very lopsided. Is the shear taking it's toll?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Probably a tornado near Cordova SC

 

[iGRXY]

The Upstate, NE GA, and WNC are going to have a rough 20-24 hours to go. Things have shifted east to align with the globals so I expect another 4-8" on top of my 3" currently that I've gotten since Tuesday night. Winds I think may be a little stronger now. I would be very concerned about tornadoes and severe weather for anybody along and east of 77 in NC/SC.

 

[Snowfan]

10:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 26
Location: 25.5°N 85.5°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

 

[Belle Lechat]

Help explain in layman’s terms

Whereas the Dvorak graph supposedly shows the radius to which hurricane force winds extend in the NW quadrant, as indicated by the R64 red line, R64 meaning a radius of 64 knots, or 73.65 mph, and the box in the lower corner saying the hurricane force winds in the NW quadrant extend out 25.0 n.mi., the recon graph has the wind speed barbs showing there aren't hurricane force winds in the NW quadrant.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Cone is ever so slightly west. Really have to wonder what the discrepancy between the spaghetti models and the graphical outputs are.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

I'm surprised they shifted it west a little.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I wouldn’t. They are being stubborn

You called it. Color me shocked.

Heck, the NHC has Atlanta dead center, lol.

I don't believe that happens. At all.