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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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MotoWeatherman said:
Winds are absolutely ripping up in the high country of NC. Clocked an 83 MPH gust at 4,650 on the side of Beech Mtn. Can't imagine what the peak at 5600 got.
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Saw report earlier of 108 mph gust on Mt. Mitchell, over 6k up but still
 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1011 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024

..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR WYTHE AND CARROLL COUNTIES

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CARROLL COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...
WYTHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...
THE CITY OF GALAX IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT FRIDAY.

 
Makeitsnow said:
Wow..what a fail by the nhc for inland areas. They usually do well and don't deserve criticism but this one deserves it. Run after run of every model you could find showed this very path after landfall and they not only chose to ignore them...they didn't even bother to tell us why they were ignoring them. Instead choosing to stick with a path that scared the heck out of millions in Atlanta and surely catching millions off guard with the severity of the wind in the Carolinas and augusta. I simply don't understand why they did this. It's one thing to get a forecast wrong...that happens...but simply ignoring great model agreement is bizarre.
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The effects were well predicted by the NHC and various NWS offices. People are paying too much attention to where the center of circulation is far inland.
 
935 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE LURE INCLUDING
RIVER CREEK CAMPGROUND, GREEN HILL, CLEGHORN, AND UNION...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
A DAM FLOODGATE RELEASE IN...
SOUTHERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT FRIDAY.

* AT 935 AM EDT, RUTHERFORD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS REPORTING
THAT CATASTROPHIC FLOWS ALONG THE BROAD RIVER INTO LAKE LURE IS
OVERTOPPING LAKE LURE DAM, RESULTING IN MAJOR FLOODING DOWNSTREAM,
INCLUDING IN THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: RIVER CREEK CAMPGROUND,
HOMES IN THE GREEN HILL COMMUNITY, AREAS IN THE CLEGHORN AND UNION
COMMUNITIES, UNION RD AT NC 108, AND COX RD. RESIDENTS ARE URGED
TO HEED ONGOING EVACUATION ORDERS FROM RUTHERFORD COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE LURE
INCLUDING RIVER CREEK CAMPGROUND, GREEN HILL, CLEGHORN, AND
UNION. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND NOW!

HAZARD...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING RESULTING IN DAM GATE
RELEASES.

SOURCE...TOWN OF LAKE LURE AND RUTHERFORD COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT

IMPACT...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND NOW! IMMEDIATE EVACUATION FOR AREAS
ALONG THE RIVER IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE DAM.

 
crecre9 said:
The effects were well predicted by the NHC and various NWS offices. People are paying too much attention to where the center of circulation is far inland.
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People do put too much emphasis in the center of circulation with tropical systems, especially after landfall as far as potential effects from a storm. They tend to forget that storms spread their effects over an broader area once they are inland.
 
crecre9 said:
The effects were well predicted by the NHC and various NWS offices. People are paying too much attention to where the center of circulation is far inland.
Click to expand...
I am not usually one to be negative to the forecasters but this time they blew it big time. They absolutely did NOT accurately predict the effects for millions of people and nearly two complete states. This was a huge huge fail. We were noticing the models and track the nhc flat out ignore it. Instead of TN it is in eastern NC. Same with the NWS. Millions of people were affected by this total fail in their local forecast.
 
935 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024

..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR TRADE

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL NOON EDT.

* AT 935 AM EDT, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN
TRADE. WATER RESCUES ARE ONGOING. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY
OCCURRING.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR TRADE. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

 
That band on the east

SOUTHEAST_loop.gif
 
crecre9 said:
The effects were well predicted by the NHC and various NWS offices. People are paying too much attention to where the center of circulation is far inland.
Click to expand...
Umm..no.

weather bubba said:
People do put too much emphasis in the center of circulation with tropical systems, especially after landfall as far as potential effects from a storm. They tend to forget that storms spread their effects over an broader area once they are inland.
Click to expand...
In this case..because of the extreme forward speed it made a huge difference which side of the eye you were on. But again getting some aspects of a storm wrong comes with the territory but ignoring good model agreement without even explaining why isn't cool imo. I would imagine if you asked folks in augusta and the western Carolinas if they got what they expected it wouldn't be yes.

And BTW this isn't a criticism of gsp...as usual they did a great job. They were put in a tough spot honestly with the nhc insisting the track would be near Atlanta and not the savannah river and they did the best they could stressing high impacts. Ffc could have done better..they too were in a tough spot but gsp had higher wind forecasts in their western counties than ffc did in their eastern counties.
 
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