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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

We'll see what the Euro has on its 0z runs but more often than not, the subtropical ridge will trend stronger in the short-medium range but then again it's a little bit more elusive here when you're dealing w/ a col and not a recurving, smaller/more well defined east-central Atlantic TC... Nearly all guidance has shifted south over the course of the day and that may only continue for the foreseeable future...
 
Anyone north of 20 miles south of 85 gets little.
gfs_apcpn_seus_40.png
 
Eastern side inflow is increasing with Harvey. Thunderstorms are erupting over the eastern semi circle from Yucatan to the center of Harvey.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The HWRF says it doesn't want to follow the trend. It went further north.
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The HWRF also intensifies Harvey unrealistically in the short range which allows it to feel the weakness currently being left in the subtropical ridge by the ULL to its north and thus gains more latitude before eventually getting caught underneath the Sonoran ridge to the N-NW... 990mb TS by tomorrow morning? Lol yea right...
hwrf_mslp_wind_09L_6.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The HWRF also intensifies Harvey unrealistically in the short range which allows it to feel the weakness currently being left in the subtropical ridge by the ULL to its north and thus gains more latitude before eventually getting caught underneath the Sonoran ridge to the N-NW... 990mb TS by tomorrow morning? Lol yea right...
View attachment 897
Click to expand...
Lol yeah. The HMON meanwhile follows exactly what the others do, right into being ripped apart.
hmon_mslp_wind_09L_24.png
 
Levi's new video. Really was intrigued by the part where he discusses the orientation of the oblong circulation wrt the convection to its north along the remnant tropical wave axis and how once the elliptical circulation becomes zonally orientated, the pressure falls to the north will stretch it enough to become circular thus perhaps boosting intensification.
 
For the first time in years a cyclone will make landfall along the Texas coastline. Hope people are getting emergency plans ready for the life threatening flooding.
 
wow I've never actually seen a meteogram like the GFS has for Corpus Christi

44" of rain...:eek::eek: that's more rain than they average in a year!!!
 
and people were laughing as it fading away in Mexico earlier elsewhere... starting to look like a real possibility
 
Pressure gradient between the ULAC to the SSE and the ULL to the NNW is creating a moderate amount of shear and dry air over Harvey. Not deadly, just prohibitive ATM. Once the UUL dissipates it should be off to the races with Harvey.
 
This thing went from looking more organized to a mess. I doubt the original COC survives with the heavy convection on the old MLC.
 
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