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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Storm5
Member
The 3k NAM is horrible . 928mb this run no wonder the NAM gets trashed during tropical season
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The 3K gets trashed in winter time.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Actually, 913mb. Completely useless. The 12KM NAM is much more realistic in terms of strength still. And yes, the NAM gets trashed if it isn't severe weather season.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It keeps ticking south each run, so I would say no.
GFS does a better job at keeping dry air out of it's core.
Meh it's a convection allowing model and that feeds into itself and causes the ridiculous strength.
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Brent
Member
GFS heading to Mexico so far after landfalling near Baffin Bay
Not sure it will it's really buried the system southwest
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Storm5
Member
Gfs is flexing the western ridge so it looks like it's about to do the ole loop
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Harvey is so close to diving too far southwest into Mexico on this gfs run and dying over the Sierra Madre Occidental like Beulah (1967)...
Brent
Member
this run is gonna get buried in Mexico if it doesn't get moving the other way
Storm5
Member
Talk about the ole squeeze play a ridge west and a trough east
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Trough is trying to pull it back at 114
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks like Harvey will just escape dissipation. Moving east again. But by then it could be dissipated again, so part 3?
Edit: Nope. He's dead. Still moving SE.
Edit: Nope. He's dead. Still moving SE.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The subtropical ridge continues to get stronger north of Harvey after day 2, we are trending towards burial in northern Mexico. Still would produce horrific flooding over the Rio Grande Valley esp Brownsville, McAllen, Laredo, etc
Storm5
Member
It's about to move back into the gulf 
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Lol it just won't die.It's about to move back into the gulf
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The trough digging into the central US will play a big role in digging this out the 18z gfs is weakest and farthest NE so it doesn't really dig the system out. The cmc and euro are similar with the trough but the cmc has a faster movement west under the ridge in the Rockies which tucks it away from any trough interaction. The euro is the perfect scenario to pick it up from northern Mexico and bring it back into the SE
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Brent
Member
lol can't wait to see where this run goes
Storm5
Member
lol it's zipping NE now
Edit zipping is the wrong word
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Edit zipping is the wrong word
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thanksgivingbrown
Member
Let's not forget the storm scraping by the Northeastern coastline. We may have two storms to track
Probably enough energy on the backside of the western ridge to grab it now on the gfs
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Im riding the EURO all the way. Lol
Brent
Member
180 hours its aliveeeee
Smh
Smh
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Someone please explain latest trends. I know Webb said it could go into mexico but right now the average is Texas and stalling then moving towards Lousiana right? Im confused as much as models.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Aaaand back into Texas again... By now, they are all underwater.
Storm5
Member
She is moving NE at a good clip now
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Storm5
Member
To webbers point , the gefs supports the idea of it getting stuck underneath the ridge and dumped into northern Mexico . There were 12z gefs members that support that idea .
18z gfs
12z gefs
Edit : looks further up the page and realizes the point has already been made. Maybe met had a point this am about reading previous pages ......
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18z gfs
12z gefs
Edit : looks further up the page and realizes the point has already been made. Maybe met had a point this am about reading previous pages ......
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This is where the gfs and euro diverge. The euro has a stronger trough and less of a west to east extension of the western ridge north of harvey
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
12Z NAVGEM supported the idea the GFS is currently running. Goes in and comes out a few days later.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks like it will bypass the areas that need it the most, which are the northern areas.whether it redevelops or not, stormy days ahead for the southeast