Tropical Major Hurricane Grace

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol View attachment 88129

Great trend, need agreement tho

 

[SD]

Can we please get a face palm emoji Shane? I need one for posts like this, lol.

I'll see what we can do. Need an update on the reactions anyway

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Let’s go ! View attachment 88130

Beware the NW trend? ? I think the earlier it develops the more north it is and pronounced on models .. now Gfs thinks grace can’t get going seems to agree with euro

 

[Shaggy]

Beware the NW trend? ? I think the earlier it develops the more north it is and pronounced on models .. now Gfs thinks grace can’t get going seems to agree with euro

Gefs has a pretty good signal for grace to slide through the Florida straights

 

[GaWx]

Good news from 12Z UKMET but it tends to be conservative:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 48.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2021 0 15.1N 48.7W 1014 24
0000UTC 14.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

 

[GaWx]

Gefs has a pretty good signal for grace to slide through the Florida straights

Fortunately only one strong member out of 30 fwiw:

 

[GaWx]

More good news with the 12Z Euro having only a very weak low over S FL at 138:

 

[GaWx]

The 12Z Euro ens has only one strong member (out of ~51) landfalling over the SE US and that hits Daytona Beach on 8/21.:

 

[Brent]

While the EPS is weak most of the tracks miss Hispaniola and Cuba so that's interesting

 

[BHS1975]

While the EPS is weak most of the tracks miss Hispaniola and Cuba so that's interesting

View attachment 88142

Looking good on the vis. I think there's gonna be some more crazy runs on the GFS.


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[Snowfan]

TD
AL, 07, 2021081318, , BEST, 0, 153N, 508W, 30, 1010, TD

 

[Snowfan]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 51.8W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

TD 7 has formed.
Graphic

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Downeastnc]

View attachment 88147

This one is gonna be a problem for someone in the SE....looks pretty decent on sat loops right now.....stronger earlier means bigger threat up my way, weaker longer probably means Floridaish......so far the GFS is back to the weaker southern track a la Fred.....versus the stronger big hits to the SE coast this morning.

 

[GaWx]

18Z GFS is very weak into the Gulf. 18Z GFS ens members so far (hour 90) look weak.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

18Z GFS is very weak into the Gulf. 18Z GFS ens members so far (hour 90) look weak.

Looking like a false alarm storm

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Whoops, as usual, the GFS is a weenie model, and is correcting

 

[GaWx]

Looking like a false alarm storm

Although I hope you're right, it is of course way too early to have a strong feel. The 18Z GEFS started off with all weak members but suddenly became much more active near the SE coast (31 members total):

 

[pcbjr]

Although I hope you're right, it is of course way too early to have a strong feel. The 18Z GEFS started off with all weak members but suddenly became much more active near the SE coast (31 members total):

View attachment 88154

never say never and never be never prepared this time of year ... after all, this is not Wake in January ... ❄

 

[BHS1975]

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[Shaggy]

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Hwrf is the dgex of hurricane models.

 

[Brent]

If it can avoid Hispaniola this is actually a pretty interesting track. I definitely wouldn't write it off as another Fred although of course it's possible

 

[Snowfan]

If it can avoid Hispaniola this is actually a pretty interesting track. I definitely wouldn't write it off as another Fred although of course it's possibleView attachment 88158

I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC shifts the path a bit further north at 11 PM since TVCN went up north.

 

[Snowfan]

As expected. A shift north. No longer hitting the mountains.

 

[Brent]

CMC missing the islands through the Florida Straits and into New Orleans

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

HWRF says she’s a CAT 2 in two days

 

[Brent]

HWRF says she’s a CAT 2 in two daysView attachment 88168

However it runs over Hispaniola later

 

[Downeastnc]

Potential landfall track close to the AL/FL border on the 5am advisory. View attachment 88169

Wrong storm......this is the Grace thread

 

[Weatherlover92]

Wrong storm......this is the Grace thread

My bad, I had both the Fred/Grace threads open at the same time. I didn’t even realize I posted it in the wrong thread.??‍

 

[DadOfJax]

Shredder city

 

[accu35]

Shredder city

We hope so, lol.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Okay maybe the hrrr was on to something

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Chazwin]

I really question whether this is gonna over Hispaniola. This is coming in stronger and better organized than Fred which invites a more northerly track to start with. Also the ridge to the north isn’t as strong. The NHC is already trending a tad north with in its forecast track.

 

[iGRXY]

It’s going to miss the mountains. If anything it’ll be close enough to use them as builder and help strengthen the storm without actually going over those mountains.

 

[Henry2326]

06z GFS......hit west side FL, goes across FL and up the east coast.

 

[Chazwin]

It’s going to miss the mountains. If anything it’ll be close enough to use them as builder and help strengthen the storm without actually going over those mountains.

I was just about to add about this to my earlier comment. The forecast track right now has shifted to going just across the northern edge of the island. If it were to stay just north of there, the proximity of the mountains would actually help enhance thunderstorm development.

 

[BHS1975]

I was just about to add about this to my earlier comment. The forecast track right now has shifted to going just across the northern edge of the island. If it were to stay just north of there, the proximity of the mountains would actually help enhance thunderstorm development.

Maybe but she has a small circulation so that would help her squeeze by instead.


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[LickWx]

Yay I can post again! Trends look better for it to miss the islands , which will help favor a more northerly and easterly track .