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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

1.32 overnight 6.54 measured total so far, hate I missing data from a good part of friday

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Rain Cold said:
Man, that HRDPS model still gets 10” into southern Wake Co. no way that’s right. The RGEM gets 6” in. The 17z HrRrrr brings over 2” over the next 18 hrs. Iconically, the IRon shows only slightly over an inch. :)
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Probably not that much but don't count it out either, just because the HRDPS is the closest I can find to reality at the moment.... it's light but steady rain here and that model as well as the RGEM only one's close to having rain up here
 
BHS1975 said:
Wouldn’t think there would be much left to develop into anything after being inland that long.
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Agreed. Only a small portion of the 51 members have a closed surface low and per another source this small number of members have SLPs all weaker than 1003 mb. Furthermore, I’m keeping in mind the near nightmare scenario the EPS just had on several runs with near half or more of the members having Flo stay offshore, move SW, and then hitting SC/GA as a strong TS or H. Nothing remotely close to that happened.
If that’s not enough, the last few GEFS have a handful of members with only a very weak low of 1,010+ mb milling around that never does much of anything. Furthermore, the 0Z GEPS has next to nothing. So, considering these points, I’m not the least bit worried about this right now as the possibility of anything of significance appears to be very low. I’m much more curious about what may or may not happen around 10/1 in the SW Caribbean.
 
Rain Cold said:
Man, that HRDPS model still gets 10” into southern Wake Co. no way that’s right. The RGEM gets 6” in. The 17z HrRrrr brings over 2” over the next 18 hrs. Iconically, the IRon shows only slightly over an inch. :)
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We are starting to see a slow shift in our flow at 850 and 700mb to more of a SE direction versus the E we had yesterday. This may be more efficient at pushing deeper moisture into the area today. Im curious to see if that area near Fay and ILM moves our way or to our SW. I do think 10 inches is aggressive though unless something changes drastically

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GaWx said:
Agreed. Only a small portion of the 51 members have a closed surface low and per another source this small number of members have SLPs all weaker than 1003 mb. Furthermore, I’m keeping in mind the near nightmare scenario the EPS just had on several runs with near half or more of the members having Flo stay offshore, move SW, and then hitting SC/GA as a strong TS or H. Nothing remotely close to that happened.
If that’s not enough, the last few GEFS have a handful of members with only a very weak low of 1,010+ mb milling around that never does much of anything. Furthermore, the 0Z GEPS has next to nothing. So, considering these points, I’m not the least bit worried about this right now as the possibility of anything of significance appears to be very low. I’m much more curious about what may or may not happen around 10/1 in the SW Caribbean.
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Very good points. Many of us (self included) put a little to much stock in the Euro/EPS and maybe chose to ignore what the other models were showing. This is not to say I won’t continue to put more confidence in the Euro/EPS and sometimes it just gets it wrong.


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SD said:
We are starting to see a slow shift in our flow at 850 and 700mb to more of a SE direction versus the E we had yesterday. This may be more efficient at pushing deeper moisture into the area today. Im curious to see if that area near Fay and ILM moves our way or to our SW. I do think 10 inches is aggressive though unless something changes drastically

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Yeah I was watching that area. Seems slow to make much progress. But the radar is filling in again.
 
We've passed the 5" mark according to most surrounding stations in my immediate vicinity and the rain/wind has been pretty impressive most of the morning here in Charlotte. I'm thankful to still have power in seeing the power outages numbers begin to increase substantially across Mecklenburg county to almost 20,000.
 
4D1F2E76-C71D-4CEA-BB2C-AF281E4112C1.png I will rebuild!
I understand there are serious death and destruction from Flo, and death toll is up to 13, but a dud down here!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Good grief. Is there any rain at all on the south side of Florence ?
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Not surpringly as the flow on the bottom is relatively dry and down-sloping due to a W component to the winds (moisture already wrung out by the time the flow comes around) vs the upsloping and very moist E and S component to the winds on the top and to the right.
 
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Rain Cold said:
Yeah I was watching that area. Seems slow to make much progress. But the radar is filling in again.
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Getting some legit heavy rain now and just got a special weather statement for cell with rotation. Sitting in church monitoring lol. Forgive me

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Yeah I just came back in from outside. There's no rain on the radar but somewhat surprisingly, it was still misting. Any kind of moisture available is being wrung out right now. Although I hate that it came with the flooding event going on in eastern North Carolina and southeast South Carolina, the brief reprieve from "Juber" at this point has been nice.
 
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