Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[NCSNOW]

Anybody got storm total rainfall so far. Notice in wilmington,onslow bay region it's still hammering heavy rain

 

[Brick Tamland]

Death toll up to 8.

 

[Metwannabe]

Some sporadic tropical downpours here today and looks like the mega band is settling in between Lumberton and Fayetteville

 

[WeatherLC]

Any chance it keeps going west?

 

[Tarheel1]

Anybody got storm total rainfall so far. Notice in wilmington,onslow bay region it's still hammering heavy rain

0.0001 here so far!

 

[NCSNOW]

Still amazingly organized ...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-81.86,35.81,1918

View attachment 6428

Dare I say that's awful close to the euro locations form couple days ago

 

[GaWx]

Dare I say that's awful close to the euro locations form couple days ago

Those Euros as well as many EPS members had her stay offshore and then come ashore CHS/Beaufort (and in one case SAV). That hasn't happened at all.

 

[SD]

12z euro with 10 more inches here through Monday. 27 more just west of Fayetteville

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[Brick Tamland]

0.0001 here so far!

Maybe you should head to the coast of NC and help with the people that had their homes and businesses destroyed by flooding instead of complaining about not getting rain. It is becoming really annoying and absurd.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Clouds building and a light breeze here. Some rain is building to the NE so it could make its way down here.

 

[SD]

Maybe you should head to the coast of NC and help with the people that had their homes and businesses destroyed by flooding instead of complaining about not getting rain. It is becoming really annoying and absurd.

I'm not sure what the expectation was either on the west side of a decaying tropical system. Just looked back at some old model runs and nothing had rain into the upstate until overnight.

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[jwb_84]

Tornado warning should be coming in for topsail beach area

 

[Shawn]

Haven't lost power out this way yet. Heard about plenty of others and wind damage though.

Again, I am very happy we have the FV3 we can take quite seriously now along with the Euro! They've obviously done a great job on this future upgrade, in regards to fixing some tropical issues especially.

 

[Webberweather53]

The Fv3 is a legitimate upgrade on the current operational GFS especially w/ more modern microphysics schemes, hopefully we can expect at least one or two similarly good performances w/ a winter storm this upcoming winter.

 

[Rain Cold]

12z euro with 10 more inches here through Monday. 27 more just west of Fayetteville

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That’s crazy.

Looks like the band upstream is bulging slightly north again. After this lull, looks like it might start raining again here. The latest HRRRr shows most of the county picking up between 1.5 and 2.5 over the next 18 hours or so. If the Euro is going to be right, we need to get under that feeder band.

 

[pcbjr]

It's always helpful to hear that those who weren't expected to get anything, in fact, are not.

Present company most assuredly and gratefully included ...

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Here comes the rain again
Falling on my head like a memory
Falling on my head like a new emotion

Deep brick. Really deep

 

[SD]

That’s crazy.

Looks like the band upstream is bulging slightly north again. After this lull, looks like it might start raining again here. The latest HRRRr shows most of the county picking up between 1.5 and 2.5 over the next 18 hours or so. If the Euro is going to be right, we need to get under that feeder band.

Its a hell of a gradient on the HRRR even just between our locations with more 6-8 type stuff here and 3-4 type stuff there. The Euro brings most of our precip during the late overnight through the day tomorrow as Florence gets more to our west and our flow flips to southerly.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Haven't lost power out this way yet. Heard about plenty of others and wind damage though.

Again, I am very happy we have the FV3 we can take quite seriously now along with the Euro! They've obviously done a great job on this future upgrade, in regards to fixing some tropical issues especially.

I'm going to want to see additional samples, but given the complexity of this setup - color me impressed!

The Fv3 is a legitimate upgrade on the current operational GFS especially w/ more modern microphysics schemes, hopefully we can expect at least one or two similarly good performances w/ a winter storm this upcoming winter.

Yes, I am glad we have GFS 2: Electric Boogaloo now and look forward to seeing how it does this winter.

Meanwhile, can Flo leave already?

 

[Rain Cold]

Its a hell of a gradient on the HRRR even just between our locations with more 6-8 type stuff here and 3-4 type stuff there. The Euro brings most of our precip during the late overnight through the day tomorrow as Florence gets more to our west and our flow flips to southerly.

Just looking at TWC and their futurecast model, whatever that is, shoes exactly what you said. Meanwhile, that band has gotten more robust and is about to bring it again. Going out for a quick rain run.