For me still way upstream, it looks like models are initializing things too far SW. Fv3 18Z at 00z looked a good bit farther south than reality. Even 23z HRRR seems to be promising SW movement that does not seem to be there yet. I am just concerned that reality may be a little north now and that could mean much more rain pregame and on Sunday-Monday for us up here. I know people have it way worse than what is forecast here, but flooding in the mountains adds another dimension.
Hope all on the board are safe!!!