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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Rain Cold said:
FWIW, the 18z 3k NAM is quite a bit farther north with the track than the 12z.

BTW, I love weather. I don’t love loss of life and devastation, but I love tracking things like this and experiencing the wind and rain.
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It’s now casting time! Throw models out the window, except the HRRR!
 
Rain Cold said:
FWIW, the 18z 3k NAM is quite a bit farther north with the track than the 12z.

BTW, I love weather. I don’t love loss of life and devastation, but I love tracking things like this and experiencing the wind and rain.
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If these maps are accurate then no wonder and another shift northward would not surprise me...
wg8dlm4.GIF
 
metwannabe said:
If these maps are accurate then no wonder and another shift northward would not surprise me...
wg8dlm4.GIF
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Do not know if they are "accurate" but it's one of the 2 "maps" this old Curmudgeon has used time and again ... including this time, and the accuracy rate for one old Curmudgeon is exceedingly high ... FWIW
 
pcbjr said:
Do not know if they are "accurate" but it's one of the 2 "maps" this old Curmudgeon has used time and again ... including this time, and the accuracy rate for one old Curmudgeon is exceedingly high ... FWIW
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I would agree, I've used it many times before also..... I'm no expert but sure looks like a trough dipping down between the decaying Atlantic ridge and the ridge to Flo's west, one would think this would pull it north. But I'm just a wannabe...
 
093826CB-2993-4E62-8797-F2AA68211551.png Ouch! Cut totals in half on the afternoon update!:(
 
Thing has slowed to 3mph! OUCH Not good for those being Affected!

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Storm5 said:
You’ve pretty much nailed the track so far


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Thanks. The Euro track seemed highly unlikely to me. Dramatic ridging seems to usually turns out to be a bit less than forecast. Not impossible, but just less likely, IMO.
 
metwannabe said:
Most likely the track it will take but I was just throwing out some food for thought... side note I finally got in on some of those decent bands up here
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Definitely, the 3km doesn't think it's going south. Flo hasn't moved, I would think the slower the further north it will stay or potentially go as it rounds the corner in SC.
 
Kylo said:
Definitely, the 3km doesn't think it's going south. Flo hasn't moved, I would think the slower the further north it will stay or potentially go as it rounds the corner in SC.
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New NHC track doesn’t really having going much farther south than its current location. Going W at 3.
 
Rain Cold said:
New NHC track doesn’t really having going much farther south than its current location. Going W at 3.
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Yippeeee! Being on the Southwest side of the storm, will be devastating!
 
Things are pretty bad in Jacksonville. I have some family there and they have 5 kids. They didn’t stock up on enough food or water so only have enough to last 2 days at best. Power is out and they are under a boil water advisory which they can’t do since they have no power. They can’t leave their house due to power lines and trees blocking both ends of the road. The power company said they won’t be out there for another 1-2 days at the earliest due to all the rain, flooding and trees down everywhere plus the winds. Very bad situation and I’m hoping things improve soon. This is the ugly side of hurricanes that people don’t think about and have no idea what it’s like until they or family members go through it.
 
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