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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

For all the flack it’s been getting the GFS has been doing well in the short term especially inside 48 hours where it demonstrates the least amount of bias with Florence and this is the critical stage since landfall and the near term track are extremely important for rain and wind impacts.
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jeff p just rolled up in his chase mobile on the frying pan... how'd he get there??
 
1300m said:
It's only been getting flack from people with an agenda or those who just weren't paying attention. The Euro has been mediocre with this storm, but because it went rogue numerous times it was just assumed it would "win" as if this is some kind of sports competition and these models aren't simply supposed to provide useful guidance for an actual forecaster to use to make a forecast, rather than regurgitate. The FV3-GFS has been a far more useful tool than the Euro with predicting this storm for me and my colleagues.
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Yeah it's done quite well surprisingly. I didn't think it would have done so well but it's good to know we have a model that can perform decently compared to the one its replacing.
 
Not sure if it's just a convection burst or not, but microwave imagery and the IR show convection blowing up around the eyewall and some attempt to close the eyewall again. The hole shifted from the SW side to the NW side.
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With the slow-down and looks of it tightening up some and pressure drops how long does it have to gain in strength before it starts facing some of the weakening variables close to shore
 
Once we get a handle on where the heaviest axis of precipitation is going to be with Florence, I can imagine the WPC will bump their expected totals across central NC. It looks like the ridiculous banding will setup somewhere between US HWY 64 & I-20 in upstate SC w/ the US HWY 74 corridor & the NC/SC state line being the general consensus for the moment. Could easily see rainfall totals exceeding 12-15" whoever is under the gun.
 
1300m said:
It's only been getting flack from people with an agenda or those who just weren't paying attention. The Euro has been mediocre with this storm, but because it went rogue numerous times it was just assumed it would "win" as if this is some kind of sports competition and these models aren't simply supposed to provide useful guidance for an actual forecaster to use to make a forecast, rather than regurgitate. The FV3-GFS has been a far more useful tool than the Euro with predicting this storm for me and my colleagues.
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I am actually impressed with the GFS so far this storm. (*For the MOST part*). It did have some really dumb runs for sure, but its been doing a pretty good job in the short term, and kudos to it for showing the looping and stalling motion first.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Pressure down 2 mb and still moving NW per recon. How is it moving NW?
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It is still supposed to at this point, BUT it has slowed waaaaaaay down...

Here comes the tricky part now, we know its stalling, but where does it go from here. I still do think there is time for this to get a bit stronger.
 
deltadog03 said:
It is still supposed to at this point, BUT it has slowed waaaaaaay down...

Here comes the tricky part now, we know its stalling, but where does it go from here. I still do think there is time for this to get a bit stronger.
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If it stalls any bit earlier/longer then modeled over more general warm deeper water could definitely get interesting to watch for
 
deltadog03 said:
It is still supposed to at this point, BUT it has slowed waaaaaaay down...

Here comes the tricky part now, we know its stalling, but where does it go from here. I still do think there is time for this to get a bit stronger.
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Yeah the last part is what is slightly worrying. The decrease in speed plus the pressure drop and the better organization now makes me wonder if she is going to head up to cat 3 again.
 
South AL Wx said:
NHC 10 am update puts the pressure at 955 mb.
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Looks like we are going to be getting hourly updates now as long as recon is flying around.
malak05 said:
Anymore flights planned to go into the storm at this point?
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I'm wondering that as well. Seems to me that they will be flying as many as they can now all the way up to landfall.
 
I know it's slowing down and it's probably more wnw then nw atm, also every model has this turning west into Wilmington. But looking at water vapor and current stirring currents don't be surprised if it slides a little more north more like Morehead City. There is a disconnect between the two highs and realize this is why the stirring currents are relaxing but nothing there either to really push this sw atm...

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