I would say a Wilmington to Morehead city landfall, or darn near close, looks likely at this point for sure. Where does it go from there.....Moves SW off shore, or on the coastline?
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
snowlover91
Member
It’s tough to know since models vary wildly from the GFS to the Euro which is the farthest south with the wsw to sw bend. My money would be on this staying near the NC/SC line like the GFS shows but who knows with Florence. The rainfall implications will be HUGE for whoever ends up on the intense banding in the N side of the storm.
cyclogent
Member
Looking at the various bands on GOES east the eye has collapsed over the last 30 minutes and a strong dry slot has worked well into the east side along a strengthening line of convection. Very extra-tropical-ish look. 85-90mph would be generous at this point IMO.
It does look like it's moving wnw now and very slow but at the same time it doesn't looked as "pancaked" as it did last nigh, even looks like cirrus unobstructed flow to the north....
snowlover91
Member
The eye is trying to close off on radar. Deep convection attempting to wrap around per satellite. This will likely be a cat 2 at landfall but due to the large wind field the major surge and power outages well inland will be bad. Freshwater flooding from 10-30” of rain will be devastating too. Btw radar confirms she’s on more of a wnw heading now exactly as modeled.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Updated WPC rainfall, looks like the heaviest band will setup somewhere between the US 64 & I-20 corridors with US HWY 74 & the NC/SC border seeming to be a good middle ground of scenarios atm. Areas that get stuck in this band could easily get over a foot (or more) of rain.
snowlover91
Member
Recon is heading for the center, let’s see what they find. My guess is max winds are probably about 100mph at the surface, pressure 952 with a broad wind field instead of concentrated around the eye like you normally see.
Why does the title still say Major Hurricane Florence ? A Cat 2 isnt major is it ?
its got major characteristics... large wind field and storm surge.. technically no it's not a major.
snowlover91
Member
Per long range radar the eye is about to close off. She’s trying.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
She was a major hurricane, so typically the thread will keep the name so that some don't think it's just a TS and was never a hurricane. It can be changed down but it'll get changed back later. I don't see a reason to change it though since she is borderline at the moment.
snowlover91
Member
Recon found extrap pressure of 954 so she’s maintained or slightly strengthened overnight. So far winds are low but over a huge area. Highest flight level wind is 80kts.
BHS1975
Member
Should be getting close to the Gulf Stream now
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
With it being a cat 1 could it regain cat 2 or 3 status as it passes over the Gulf Stream?
Looks like recon fixed a center at 33.1 and 75.2 (or close to that)
According to Alan Huffman, Fran had a pressure of 954 MB when it made landfall near Wilmington.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Did I miss something last night? Did the Euro have her moving up the NC coastline and on north?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Negative. Euro held its track SW through the midlands of SC and then up just to the west of WNC.
No sir it went south, like the previous runs .It was a bit further north a bit over land over GA/SC
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Brick Tamland
Guest
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