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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

I think the 00z EURO was as far south as we'll see it. Today's 12z run is about where yesterday's 12z run was yesterday. I don't expect to see too much more extreme adjustments either way honestly now.

Important to note. .this is a large scale hurricane and effects north and east of Florence will be far reaching... think Floyd in terms in size so even places well inland with vigorous convection will see very solid strong winds and gusts.
 
Rain Cold said:
Storm looks like garbage. The eyewall is open on the SE side. It needs to get going soon, or it's probably a Cat 2 at landfall.
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"Garbage" is good in this case.

Regardless, I'm guessing cat 2 at most at landfall (wherever that is) due to the expected slowdown.

Looking at history, I'm sure there are exceptions, but the worst or nonweakening storms have usually been moving steadily like Hugo, Andrew, Irma, Camille, etc. as opposed to crawling.
 
yeah I think its transitioning towards one of those really large storms that never really gets it back together and just kind of slowly winds down...

It would still be really dangerous and the water wouldn't go away but the winds would be less extreme in general but maybe way more spread out
 
think something like Katrina, Irma, other examples etc... they were really large and spread out but weakening when they came in. Floyd is a NC example

Not to downplay it at all, but the water usually always is worse than the wind anyway
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Would that EPS run still put the hurricane into Georgia pretty good?
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No, less threatening than 0Z EPS for sure due to mean being further north. The trends at 12Z are mainly good for GA, especially Euro/EPS. Hopefully that trend will hold up. Way too early to tell for sure though.

Also, 12Z EPS doesn't have those crazy FL tracks that the 0Z EPS had.
 
The 18z NAM at 15 is a bit NW of it the 12z at 18.
 
Brent said:
think something like Katrina, Irma, other examples etc... they were really large and spread out but weakening when they came in. Floyd is a NC example

Not to downplay it at all, but the water usually always is worse than the wind anyway
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I know Opal was weakening also when it came onshore but not sure if it was a large storm.
 
Bout the same position at hour 20.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I'm not sure the media would like that. The way they are talking, this is going to be one of the strongest hurricanes ever to hit the US.
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its still gonna be a big deal don't get me wrong... we all know the water is what does the damage, look at Harvey in Houston

Especially with the slow motion, that makes everything worse
 
About the same at hour 26...maybe sliiiiightly SW.
 
Exact same position at 30 hr as the 12z. Remarkable.
 
Is this more of a Sandy type deal (completely different setup obviously) with a really big wind field and things slowing down as a it approaches as a opposed to a Katrina or Ivan?
 
Most people don't need to worry about what the maximum winds will be except where landfall occurs. Whether it is a 3 or a 2 is immaterial for most here, the rainfall is the main worry outside of extreme Eastern NC causing flooding especially in the mountains, foothills and Piedmont. If it goes through SC, comes up central to western NC and just creeps it could be devastating for WNC and WSC re: flooding
 
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