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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

And now heading for Charleston..... good grief

edit: I stand corrected looks like she's bypassing Charleston, heck maybe headed for Ga
 
To illustrate how difficult a time the models are having with what happens, look at the Euro run from 12z yesterday. The remnants are in the Apps.
ecmwf_z500a_watl_6.png


Now today the remants are stalled off ILM.
ecmwf_z500a_watl_5.png
 
The frustrating thing is the models are all over the place with what happens with Flo once she gets here. They have been pretty consistent on Flo coming somewhere between the NC/SC border and Morehead City, but they have showed her going inland to the NC mountains, inland over Raleigh like Fran, inland to SC, and just sitting and spinning at the coast. And that has all been in the last two days.
 
BlountCountyALwx said:
Assuming this was to play out exactly as the model predicts, would this remain hurricane status while sitting stalled off of the coast? What effect does this have strength wise?
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Hard to say, probably weaken somewhat due to upwelling cooler water and sucking in dry air of the US. On the flip side though TCHP is pretty good off the coast in the Gulf Stream, so if it can hold off dry air, weakening would be slow.
 
Brick Tamland said:
The frustrating thing is the models are all over the place with what happens with Flo once she gets here. They have been pretty consistent on Flo coming somewhere between the NC/SC border and Morehead City, but they have showed her going inland to the NC mountains, inland over Raleigh like Fran, inland to SC, and just sitting and spinning at the coast. And that has all been in the last two days.
Click to expand...

Good news for us, a nuisance event for the triangle though. Bad news for places south/east of us.
 
Does the intensity of Florence matter as it relates to the track, as she runs into the blocking ridge? The models have trended weaker with the storm. But assuming it strengthens beyond what they are indicating, could that matter as to where/if the stall occurs?
 
Welp... that's it, I'm convinced that no models or anything else know where this damn thing is going. I'm still expecting a Wilmington to Raleigh I40 freight train, but who knows. It could never even make landfall at this point and do a 360 just before Oak Island and OTS
 
Kylo said:
Good news for us, a nuisance event for the triangle though. Bad news for places south/east of us.
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Part of me says we are in the clear because almost all models stall now as it approaches the coast (except the Ukmet) but on the other hand the Euro shifted a good bit north prior to the stall and if it stalls later oh boy.
 
Kylo said:
Good news for us, a nuisance event for the triangle though. Bad news for places south/east of us.
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But it is hard to know what to believe. This solution isn't necessarily correct.
 
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