Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[RollTide18]

This back and forth with the models is frustrating.

 

[MichaelAndrews]

Euro went northeast lmfao
If I had a stack of papers in my hand they would have been promptly thrown into the air

 

[Metwannabe]

Hmmm..

 

[snowlover91]

At 54 the Euro is heading right for Jacksonville unless it stalls/turns very quickly.

 

[Webberweather53]

We'll have to see what the EPS says, if it comes back north at least we'll have agreement for once lol.

 

[Metwannabe]

@60 it's stalling off the coast, could still turn west

 

[snowlover91]

Hour 60 it looks like the Euro is just about stalled east of ILM. Now where she goes is the big question. My guess would be a push west or wsw.

 

[snowlover91]

Looks like landfall near ILM but a touch north.

 

[Metwannabe]

Western edge of the Atlantic ridge eroded quicker allowing a little more northward movement.... somebody make the madness stop

 

[snowlover91]

How far north this gets before the west turn is going to be critical. This run appears to be north of the 00z run last night a little before the west turn, but I could be wrong?

 

[Metwannabe]

Sliding, crawling west @72

 

[Webberweather53]

Sliding, crawling west @72

The rainfall is going to be ugly in the southern coastal plain to say the least.

 

[Kylo]

I guess the GFS led the way? Euro is stalled off eastern NC rotting away. Where the GFS has been past 36 hours.

 

[Metwannabe]

@84 still sitting just off ILM.... wow!

 

[snowlover91]

We'll have to see what the EPS says, if it comes back north at least we'll have agreement for once lol.

Yeah EPS should be interesting. I thought the Euro might trend south since GFS, HMON and HWRF did but it looks like it was a touch weaker with the ridge allowing a little more of a north shift. It seems we have pretty good agreement on Wilmington area as the point where this stalls but still plenty of time for that to change and small changes will be difficult to forecast even 48 hours out... I don't envy the NHC because this is a tough one to forecast with the stalling.

 

[Metwannabe]

@96 finally starting to drift SW.... still no landfall

 

[Metwannabe]

To the NHC: Good Luck!

 

[snowlover91]

By 96 this is drifting SW very slowly... wow. Wilmington is in a very bad spot and all the surrounding beaches as a category 3/4 storm that just slowly weakens would be a nightmare... especially the northeast side of the eye where the water will keep piling up.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Flo is trying to figure out where she wants to go next.

 

[ALHammerWx]

Assuming this was to play out exactly as the model predicts, would this remain hurricane status while sitting stalled off of the coast? What effect does this have strength wise?