• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Brick Tamland said:
Something I have not seen mentioned is the threat of tornadoes with Flo coming in. Is that a possibility?
Click to expand...

Yes. SPC has a marginal risk out for coastal areas on Thursday currently, and that could be upgraded and expanded as we get closer:

day3otlk_0730.gif

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA...VIRGINIA TIDEWATER...AND SOUTHERN DELMARVA...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado or two may occur from the North Carolina coast into the
Virginia Tidewater as Hurricane Florence approaches.

...Carolinas/Hurricane Florence...
Guidance is a fairly good agreement that the center of Florence will
be 150-180 miles south-southeast of HSE at the beginning of the Day
3 period (12Z Thursday). It is during this period (i.e. between 12Z
Thursday and 12Z Friday) when some models depict Florence slowing
its forward motion in response to a weakness in the flow aloft. Some
of the guidance actually slows the storm enough to keep it offshore
while others bring the storm farther inland before significantly
slowing it. As such, there is uncertainty on whether or not the
front-right quadrant will make it onshore before 12Z Friday. This
uncertainty limits including higher probabilities in this outlook.
If confidence that the right-front quadrant (and its associated
favorable wind profiles and higher theta-e) comes ashore increases
in subsequent outlooks, Slight-Risk-equivalent probabilities will
likely be needed.
 
12z NAM stalls near the OBX and shifts the 5H field north a touch allowing this extra N component before the stall.
namconus_mslp_wind_seus_47.png
 
Allan Huffman has landfall still between Cape Fear and Cape Lookout, but move the inland track further south.

 
packfan98 said:
Further west track inland though. Major flooding from the Triangle to the Triad with that look.
Click to expand...

Looks like NHC is hitting the flash flood potential a little harder on this advisory, adding the word "catastrophic":

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding is possible over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as
Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.
 
Landfall is about 6 hours later on the new advisory, really taking into account the slowing motion as it approaches the coast.....
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top